[grim]

ok, 6.75%, for 2022 barely out of the pandemic, try to find prepandemic

The more things change, the more they stay the same 😀

 

[95B3.6]

Toyota says 2026, that's two years

That’s been pushed out, and could well get further delayed.

We’ll be lucky to see the Toyota ASSB by 2028…

https://www.autoweek.com/news/a45189317/toyota-solid-state-battery-timeline/

 

[grim]

Who knew?

 

[reguy]

Same issue, as reported from another source, one not known for producing "hit" pieces.

Tesla Drivers in Chicago Confront a Harsh Foe: Cold Weather - The New York Timeswww.nytimes.com

It's an interesting read. Just a sampling of the relevant and interesting points raised.

"Some of the countries with the highest usage of electric vehicles are also among the coldest. In Norway, where nearly one in four vehicles are electric, drivers are accustomed to taking steps, such as preheating the car ahead of a drive, to increase efficiency even in cold weather ......"

"Charging stations in Norway see longer lines in the winter than summer, since vehicles are slower to charge in colder weather, but that has become less of an issue in recent years since Norway has built more charging ports .... Also, the majority of people in Norway live in houses, not apartments, and nearly 90 percent of electric vehicle owners have their own charging stations at home, he said."


"Cold weather is likely to be less of an issue as companies update electric vehicles models. Even in the last few years, companies have developed capabilities that allow newer models to be more efficient in the cold."

So, it seems some of the "early" models are likely to become obsolete. I'm not keen to become an early adopter.

 

[ericsan13]

Here's data from the Norway equivalent of AAA proving EVs are 50% as likely than ICE cars to need help in cold weather (by case amount).

Electric vehicles fail at a lower rate than gas cars in extreme cold

Electric vehicles fail at a lower rate than gas-powered cars in the extreme cold, according to a road assistance service...

electrek.co

Meanwhile all news channels keep echoing that the EVs themselves are the issue, and not the couple supercharger stations. If extreme cold caused EVs to die, this issue would not be localized to a few stations in Chicago.

 

[ericsan13]

Who knew?

Interesting thing here is that as the US continues to clean up the power grid, the cleaner EVs will become.

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/life-cycle-emissions-of-electric-hybrid-and-combustion-engine-vehicles/

 

[grim]

So, it seems some of the "early" models are likely to become obsolete. I'm not keen to become an early adopter.

Exactly why I am done being an early adopter. Jack Baruth said much the same thing about the Macan in 2013. It was not clear that Porsche could mass produce a CUV. Some people might think this true with all the problems associated with the .1 version

Avoidable Contact: Cayenne Won't Help Ya, Cayenne Won't Do You No Good.

“When,” I asked her, “did you realize that you, were, well, you know, an actual prostitute?”“Well,” she said, rubbing her cigarette out in the waffle-patterned wrought-iron table, shielding her eyes against the sun as it set in the distance, “I’d been dancing for a while, and there was kind of a...

www.thetruthaboutcars.com

In terms of EVs, I think we are at the tail end of ".1" The earlier versions range was just terrible. Moving on to solid state batteries will be ".2". Early adopters pay a HEAVY price in sunk costs and having to upgrade.

In the early 2000s I bought an early HD big TV. It cost a fortune at the time. And the worst thing was there was NO CONTENT. It took years for the networks to make any content. I view that much the same as infrastructure, few chargers. And WORSE, 15 years later you could get a bigger, 4K TV, with a MUCH better picture, for a fraction of the 2004 or so prices. Today 8K TVs are being sold with NO CONTENT. In fact I can't get 4K content from cable (i.e., FIOS).

Being an early adopter for anything technological is good to have passion for something, but it takes a heavy financial toll.

 

[ericsan13]

In terms of EVs, I think we are at the tail end of ".1" The earlier versions range was just terrible. Moving on to solid state batteries will be ".2". Early adopters pay a HEAVY price in sunk costs and having to upgrade.

In the early 2000s I bought an early HD big TV. It cost a fortune at the time. And the worst thing was there was NO CONTENT. It took years for the networks to make any content. I view that much the same as infrastructure, few chargers. And WORSE, 15 years later you could get a bigger, 4K TV, with a MUCH better picture, for a fraction of the 2004 or so prices. Today 8K TVs are being sold with NO CONTENT. In fact I can't get 4K content from cable (i.e., FIOS).

Being an early adopter for anything technological is good to have passion for something, but it takes a heavy financial toll.

Bear in mind 'early' is relative but cars like Nissan Leaf, Chevy Bolt, and Model 3 have been around since 2010, 2016, and 2017 respectively. That's 14 years Leaf owners have been dealing with limited infrastructure.

Regarding the heavy financial toll, it is not heavy at all and is case dependent:

https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs-gas-cheaper-to-own/

"by our calculations this makes the electric F-150 $2664 cheaper to own and operate over the first three years than its gas counterpart—and that’s without the tax credit."

I already know based on your road-trip behavior that it wouldn't work for you without renting a car, and also because of your power situation you'd spend more than most to install an L2, but I believe we are past the point where it's early adopters buying EVs.

It makes financial sense for a lot of folks, works well for their road trip behavior, less problems than ICE in the cold (per Norway AAA), produces less CO2 than both hybrids and ICE, less prone to fires than ICE, and insurance is about the same. Basically the list of reasons keeps getting longer and the infrastructure will only improve.

P.S. I didn't buy an EV for above reasons. I bought it because it was a superior product overall.

 

[Footie]

Here's data from the Norway equivalent of AAA proving EVs are 50% as likely than ICE cars to need help in cold weather (by case amount).

Electric vehicles fail at a lower rate than gas cars in extreme cold

Electric vehicles fail at a lower rate than gas-powered cars in the extreme cold, according to a road assistance service...

electrek.co

Meanwhile all news channels keep echoing that the EVs themselves are the issue, and not the couple supercharger stations. If extreme cold caused EVs to die, this issue would not be localized to a few stations in Chicago.

We have had our first bit of cold weather, snow and minus 6 degree. Imagine my laughter when I stepped out into my warm EV whilst the wife was struggling with a kettle of warm water trying to defrost the door handle and clear the windows of her Golf R. 😊

Yep EVs are crap in the cold. 😂

 

[ericsan13]

We have had our first bit of cold weather, snow and minus 6 degree. Imagine my laughter when I stepped out into my warm EV whilst the wife was struggling with a kettle of warm water trying to defrost the door handle and clear the windows of her Golf R. 😊

Yep EVs are crap in the cold. 😂

Preheating my EV is def one of my favorite features.

There are so many misconceptions with new technology and EVs are definitely not immune to these wild assumptions, especially with big auto and big oil marketing against them.

When mRNA vaccines came out, people thought it caused autism. Same with microwaves & radiation, RFID/tap-to-pay & skimming, preserving batteries in the freezer (lol!), power lines & cancer, or basically any new tech causing cancer. Cell phones or 5G causing mass extinction of birds or causing pandemics...the list goes on and I'd better stop because it'll get controversial. 😂

I hope the Macan EV will overcome doubts by offering an excellent value proposition. The reviews I've seen so far seem incremental vs. other EVs.

 

[reguy]

Interesting article on how cold weather can affect the claimed range, and go easy on the heater if you want to make it home.

"CR Tests Show Electric Car Range Can Fall Far Short of Claims
Temperature and other driving conditions have an impact; Tesla doesn't meet range claims year round"

How Temperature Affects Electric Vehicle Range - Consumer Reports

 

[ericsan13]

Interesting article on how cold weather can affect the claimed range, and go easy on the heater if you want to make it home.

"CR Tests Show Electric Car Range Can Fall Far Short of Claims
Temperature and other driving conditions have an impact; Tesla doesn't meet range claims year round"

How Temperature Affects Electric Vehicle Range - Consumer Reports

If you leave Tesla out of it, since they are well known to over-promise and under-deliver (typical Musk), EVs take a 30% penalty to range at the tested 16F.

But this is not that different from ICE cars where "It can drop as much as 24% for short (3- to 4-mile) trips" at 20F:

Fuel Economy in Cold Weather

Cold weather can reduce your fuel economy. Our tips can help improve your gas mileage when temperatures drop.

www.fueleconomy.gov

Who is going to write the article?
"US Department of Energy Show Combustion Car Range Can Fall Far Short of Claims"

 

[grim]

I believe we are past the point where it's early adopters buying EVs.

Early adopters chase the next shiny bauble. These are the people who bought VHS players, and a library of movies, and then chased the next bauble and more sunk costs - Laser disc > DVD > Blue ray > ultra HD player (along with the libraries, chasing shiny objects.) Gotta have the latest bauble. It cost $$$.

These are cars, which for the vast majority of people are just expensive appliances no different than a washing machine. You dont change washing machines unless yours is broken and not worth repairing. Appliance buyers dont chase shiny baubles. The average car on the road is almost 13 years.. … AVERAGE. They couldnt tell you what a limited slip differential did nor care.

At 1% of registrations, current buyers are not appliance buyers but “enthusiasts“, those on the far end of the curve, “enthused and EXCITED” about their new baubles (cars). They like to read about them and have a passion for them Appliance buyers have zero passion for their washing machines. You throw the soap and clothes in and turn it on. They buy gas when its low and go food shopping, etc. Appliance buyers buy new appliances when their hardware breaks, not on a whim or because of any passion.

Meanwhile, the appliance buyers know nothing about the latest tech, nor care. They do not adopt early but change when they functionally must.. They dont know about the newest wash cycle or car tech change because ... it just cleans clothes, or gets me to the store.

Yeah, evs are in the late .1 early adoption stage while the appliance buyers, the vast majority, the huge number of people in the middle of the curve, couldnt tell you what NACS meant and Tesla is just some stock they wished they bought 10 years ago. And when they hear about Teslas cant charge in the cold, they dont read the details. They just know the headlines, cold bad for EVs 🥶. Their perception is their reality because … its just an appliance and not a passion. And no amount of defending EVs from the passionate will change the appliance buyers perception, right or wrong. After all, its just another appliance that ends up in the dump, landfill, junkyard….

Just go back and read a few of the enthusiasts posts here. They are full of passion and defend their choices. Passion is good. The forum is full of car enthusiasts. Everone who bought a 15 Macan, sight unseen, was an early adopter, and we have a subforum full of serious complaints. You live and learn.

And some of us never learn and history repeats itself. Those baubles sure do look shiny 🤫🤷‍♂️

 

[reguy]

If you leave Tesla out of it, since they are well known to over-promise and under-deliver (typical Musk), EVs take a 30% penalty to range at the tested 16F.

But this is not that different from ICE cars where "It can drop as much as 24% for short (3- to 4-mile) trips" at 20F:

Fuel Economy in Cold Weather

Cold weather can reduce your fuel economy. Our tips can help improve your gas mileage when temperatures drop.

www.fueleconomy.gov

Who is going to write the article?
"US Department of Energy Show Combustion Car Range Can Fall Far Short of Claims"

There is quite a difference.

The source you cite says:

"For electric vehicles (EVs), fuel economy can drop roughly 39% in mixed city and highway driving, and range can drop by 41%. About two-thirds of the extra energy consumed is used to heat the cabin."

And for trips in an ICE vehicle of greater than 3 to 4 miles, the drop is 15%.

Those are major differences.

 

[Footie]

There is quite a difference.

The source you cite says:

"For electric vehicles (EVs), fuel economy can drop roughly 39% in mixed city and highway driving, and range can drop by 41%. About two-thirds of the extra energy consumed is used to heat the cabin."

And for trips in an ICE vehicle of greater than 3 to 4 miles, the drop is 15%.

Those are major differences.

I can only speak about my own experiences with my i4M50, in the summer I can get approximate 240-245 miles from a full charge with mostly what you refer to as city driving, when it was almost exclusively motorway driving that dropped to about 205 miles.

At the moment being winter and temperature significantly lower than in the summer I am seeing about 203-207 miles at 100% SOC with city driving. By anyone’s reckoning this is significantly better than a 39% drop.

So believe what you want to believe.

 

[ericsan13]

Early adopters chase the next shiny bauble. These are the people who bought VHS players, and a library of movies, and then chased the next bauble and more sunk costs - Laser disc > DVD > Blue ray > ultra HD player (along with the libraries, chasing shiny objects.) Gotta have the latest bauble. It cost $$$.

These are cars, which for the vast majority of people are just expensive appliances no different than a washing machine. You dont change washing machines unless yours is broken and not worth repairing. Appliance buyers dont chase shiny baubles. The average car on the road is almost 13 years.. … AVERAGE. They couldnt tell you what a limited slip differential did nor care.

At 1% of registrations, current buyers are not appliance buyers but “enthusiasts“, those on the far end of the curve, “enthused and EXCITED” about their new baubles (cars). They like to read about them and have a passion for them Appliance buyers have zero passion for their washing machines. You throw the soap and clothes in and turn it on. They buy gas when its low and go food shopping, etc. Appliance buyers buy new appliances when their hardware breaks, not on a whim or because of any passion.

Meanwhile, the appliance buyers know nothing about the latest tech, nor care. They do not adopt early but change when they functionally must.. They dont know about the newest wash cycle or car tech change because ... it just cleans clothes, or gets me to the store.

Yeah, evs are in the late .1 early adoption stage while the appliance buyers, the vast majority, the huge number of people in the middle of the curve, couldnt tell you what NACS meant and Tesla is just some stock they wished they bought 10 years ago. And when they hear about Teslas cant charge in the cold, they dont read the details. They just know the headlines, cold bad for EVs 🥶. Their perception is their reality because … its just an appliance and not a passion. And no amount of defending EVs from the passionate will change the appliance buyers perception, right or wrong. After all, its just another appliance that ends up in the dump, landfill, junkyard….

Just go back and read a few of the enthusiasts posts here. They are full of passion and defend their choices. Passion is good. The forum is full of car enthusiasts. Everone who bought a 15 Macan, sight unseen, was an early adopter, and we have a subforum full of serious complaints. You live and learn.

And some of us never learn and history repeats itself. Those baubles sure do look shiny 🤫🤷‍♂️

Early adopter: A person who begins using a product or service at or around the time it becomes available.

I would say that Leaf (2010) and Bolt (2016) owners are the true early adopters.

I don't think it's right to define early adopters as people who are chasing the next shiny thing and seeking the latest tech. I would argue that majority of Teslas are made for appliance buyers, especially with their limited luxury features and simple things like lack of control stalks on the steering wheel or a screen for the driver.

Also US EV registration is at 7.4% for the first nine months of 2023 and growing. Not 1%. I get that it's hard for you to adopt because it doesn't work in your circumstance, but EVs are a logical choice for many. Over the next several years I expect we will exit early adopters and enter early majority.

Yes, I'm sure there are EV enthusiasts mixed in (where did they come from and why???), but I see that as a minority of EV buyers. At 13 years of average ownership, EVs would be a very expensive enthusiast hobby. I doubt that at a million registrations in 2023 that there are that many enthusiasts. There are people like me who bought it just because it was a compelling product, EV or not.

It's a shame the general public just read the headlines and the Chicago story continues to be parroted across the news. I am having fun digging into the numbers and learning things I never knew and I am sure eventually the truth will get out.

Plus I'm pretty sure those lucky VHS, DVD, and Blu-ray owners already captured marginal value from their relatively inexpensive appliances. Can't speak for those laser disc owners though. America is built on consumer spending, but we're talking about a very expensive appliance here and it must be a logical purchase.

 

[ericsan13]

There is quite a difference.

The source you cite says:

"For electric vehicles (EVs), fuel economy can drop roughly 39% in mixed city and highway driving, and range can drop by 41%. About two-thirds of the extra energy consumed is used to heat the cabin."

And for trips in an ICE vehicle of greater than 3 to 4 miles, the drop is 15%.

Those are major differences.

True, but if you click into the data sources for the USDOE, it's using "Estimates for EVs are based on a 2019 study by AAA". Battery tech has improved a lot in the past four years while thermal efficiency of ICE cars has not. Therefore I believe the updated consumer reports article is more accurate.

Also the fundamental difference is that ICE has big gas tanks not just for the occasional long trip, but also so you don't have to refuel as often. With EV you could charge every night to 100% if you wanted to. For the sake of simplicity I recognize it's easier to harp on range, but the behavior is more nuanced than that. Very rarely do you drive an EV to empty before charging it.

 

[Mii]

There is not one single EV charging network. There are many and each one would have to be hacked to have a broad effect.

Funny that you see limiting EV charging at home as a con. I see that as a big pro and a L2 charger at home is as safe and consumes roughly the same power as many other appliances already commonly found in home: electric dryer, electric cooking range, electric water heater, hot tub, A/C, the list goes on. Sure each of these are potential fire hazard but it is not EV-specific.

If you're dead against a L2 charger, just use a regular 120V outlet and you regain 2 miles/hour for the heaviest of EVs. I think it's much more for Model 3 and Y.

I see leaving home with 80% full range every day as a huge plus. No more shady gas stations and no more oil dependence. I went over a mountain pass and back today and didn't have to charge outside or get gas. Tomorrow my car will be ready for another road trip.

Yes the EV industry will definitely have to bend over backwards for mass adoption. Currently it only works for so many people. Yet that number is growing increasingly fast.

It's missing the fundamental issue here, the use of battery! Home appliances are very different from EV concept, we don't travel with Water Heater, Hot Hub or A/C in 3 seconds from 0-60 do we? True, the fire hazard can happen to any appliance, but it's the battery that's difficult to contain in case of fire, regardless how good the L2 charger worked.

Let's suppose every potential EV owner formed a community group, extends every EV home charging externally as a community charging hot spot (outside of garage, condo, or designated charging spot, within acceptable regulation or financial incentive), enable random EV to stop by and charge in the entire nation's road map by filling the gaps on lack of charging stations, the power generation still won't scale to support large number of EV, let alone many areas are already under power shortage, required periodic rolling blackouts.

Solid State battery in the work to potentially "reduce" the battery fire hazard (notice it's not eliminating fire hazard entirely as it's still using battery technology).

Will Solid-State Batteries Eliminate the Need for EV Fire Protection? | Electric Vehicles Research

Thermal runaway and the associated battery fires have proven to be a critical concern for customers, battery designers, and electric vehicle manufacturers. Many vehicles have experienced battery fires and hundreds of thousands have been recalled.

www.electricvehiclesresearch.com

If renewable energy is such a concern, electricity is not the only option as mentioned by others here. Porsche may switch to Plan-B if consumers shrug away from EV:

eFuels: Synthetic fuel from renewable energy sources

Sustainability at Porsche has many facets. In this ‘Perspectives on Sustainability’ interview series, Porsche employees talk about sustainability from the perspective of their respective fields of expertise. Team Lead Karl Dums talks about the future of eFuels in the automotive industry.

newsroom.porsche.com

We believe that with eFuels, we have blazed a technological trail that offers added value to the cause of sustainability around the world. At the same time, there is also potential for other applications: beyond road transport, eFuels could also be used in the aviation sector, shipping or even the chemical industry.

Can we say the same for applying battery technology to power a jet or shipping vessel? Either it won't fly or float due to its own weight!

Instead of asking why the EV-hate, why not ask if there are other alternative renewable energy options that are more sensible to support existing and future transportation model?

 

[reguy]

True, but if you click into the data sources for the USDOE, it's using "Estimates for EVs are based on a 2019 study by AAA". Battery tech has improved a lot in the past four years while thermal efficiency of ICE cars has not. Therefore I believe the updated consumer reports article is more accurate.

Don't forget, you originally cited the USDOE report, not me (post 332). You did so in response to my reference of the Consumer Reports article (post 331), which you now state is more accurate.
Thank you.

 

[Footie]

It is not a choice, unfortunately the tax Porsche would have to pay would kill profit or bankrupt them. Porsche is longer the company that builds one car. Lamborghini, Ferrari are in the same boat. When you move away from the boutique sale platform and greed comes into play this what happens.

I know the European Union are forcing manufacturers who sell in their countries down this route but is the same thing currently happening in the US or Asia?

I recall someone posting on another forum that manufacturers are being taxed to the tune of 15K euros for every non EV car they sell, is this fact or fake news?

I openly admit to being an EV fan, love the way they drive the handiness of being able to charge at home etc but at the moment I don’t think the infrastructure is in place to push it to the next level which is a replacement of all ICE currently sold each year from now on. There is a huge amount of work by governments to get it to this level and at the moment I see very little improvements to make me feel confident that it can happen in the timescale they have set.