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Within 30 days of being legally able to or guidance, I will NOT:

  • 1. attend an outdoor sporting event (e.g., HS baseball game)

    Votes: 72 72.0%
  • 2. attend an indoor sporting event (e.g., NBA or College basketball game)

    Votes: 86 86.0%
  • 3. attend or host an informal social gathering (e.g. party or outdoor BBQ)

    Votes: 38 38.0%
  • 4. attend or host a formal social gathering (e.g., wedding)

    Votes: 68 68.0%
  • 5. attend a formal public gathering (e.g., 4th of July event)

    Votes: 81 81.0%
  • 6. eat in a sit down restaurant or visit a bar

    Votes: 56 56.0%
  • 7. go to a movie, theater, or concert (other than a drive-in)

    Votes: 78 78.0%
  • 8. take my car for any kind of non-emergency service

    Votes: 23 23.0%
  • 9. have any kind of non-emergency service done inside my house, apartment, etc.

    Votes: 37 37.0%
  • 10. go to any kind of non-emergency medical appointment (e.g., routine physical, dental cleaning)

    Votes: 39 39.0%
  • 11. physically perform non-essential shopping (e.g., physically shop for luxuries, new clothes)

    Votes: 44 44.0%
  • 12. go to a public park, beach, town square, etc.

    Votes: 30 30.0%

  • Total voters
    100
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Propane is SO much more convenient to cook with!
Nice, yes it is more convenient. Anything cooked outside always seems to taste better than inside. Charcoal is wood. This time around I went charcoal, been the propane route. Wood gives IMO better flavor. Throw some Apple or Hickory lumps on and you can slow smoke. But anything outside is better than inside.

So here are the tools I use to keep my sanity during the pandemic.
Wood fired Pizza oven? Nice. You using 00 flour? Its expensive, where are you getting it? I want your pizza oven. 🍕

Is that a pasta machine? Its manual. You know there is an attachment for the Kitchen Aid? You're making homemade pasta? I guess there is time these days but that is WORK, but SO much better. GOOD for you.

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Rights are not perceived. They are real.
They are perceived when people think the States can't mandate mandatory mask wearing during a pandemic....claiming Constitutional rights.

We’ve attended our church the last two weeks. It reopened on Father’s Day with precautions and a 25% capacity limit.
Hope everyone was wearing a mask and staying 6 feet apart....
 
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Nice, yes it is more convenient. Anything cooked outside always seems to taste better than inside. Charcoal is wood. This time around I went charcoal, been the propane route. Wood gives IMO better flavor. Throw some Apple or Hickory lumps on and you can slow smoke. But anything outside is better than inside.



Pizza oven? Nice. You using 00 flour? Its expensive, where are you getting it? Is that a pasta machine? Its manual. You know there is an attachment for the Kitchen Aid? You're making homemade pasta. I guess there is time but that is WORK, but SO much better.

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@grim
Pizza oven is this one:

It is fantastic!!! I ordered with Saputo stones Perfectly Cooked Neapolitan Pizza, Every Time - Saputo Pizza Stones and it gets to 900F. Pizza takes 1 minute in the oven and it never burns the bottom

Flour:
Yes, although not born in Italy, I am Italian. Thus, I use 00 flour for my pizza or pasta dough. I buy Caputo 00 flour on Amazon. Amazon.com : Antimo Caputo Chefs Flour 2.2 LB (Pack of 2) - Italian Double Zero 00 - Soft Wheat for Pizza Dough, Bread, & Pasta : Grocery & Gourmet Food

Pizza dough recipe I use for 2 12"pizzas
153g 00 flour
153g all purpose flour
1 tsp salt
3/4 tsp active yeast
1 tsp extra virgin olive oil

Mix flours and salt in a large mixing bowl
Mix a little less than 1 cup of lukewarm water the yeast and the olive oil and then pour it into flour mixture
Knead with your hands until well combined, approximately 3 minutes, then let the mixture rest for 15 minutes.
Knead rested dough for 3 minutes. Cut into 2 equal pieces and shape each into a ball.
Place on a heavily floured surface, cover with dampened cloth, and let rest and rise for 3 to 4 hours at room temperature or for 8 to 24 hours in the refrigerator
Dough has to be at room temperature to stretch it

Pasta machine:
I have this one: https://www.marcato.it/en/product/manual_machines/atlas-150 and use this to dry the pasta https://www.marcato.it/en/product/accessories/tacapasta The pasta machine costs $75 and you can order on Amazon or other home goods stores online. It is a beautiful piece of design all in stainless steel.

Yes, it is manual and like a good Italian no Kitchen Aid attachment for me. My Italian nonna would kill me if I made pasta using anything automatic. Yes, it takes time and lots of work but that is part of keeping my mind focused on something I have pleasure doing it.

BTW, I only make pasta with a mix of 00 flour and semolina flour (https://www.amazon.com/Antimo-Caputo-Semolina-Italian-Semola/dp/B01N3XO2Q9/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?crid=3EV1NUPR809OB&dchild=1&keywords=semola+caputo&qid=1593450598&sprefix=semola+ca,aps,387&sr=8-1-spons&psc=1&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUEzSVZMMkJKVE1JRkpRJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwNTM1Nzg2MTFPWlY4VjNIVTM1UiZlbmNyeXB0ZWRBZElkPUExMDMzMzI0QjM1Nk9ORFk1QlImd2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGYmYWN0aW9uPWNsaWNrUmVkaXJlY3QmZG9Ob3RMb2dDbGljaz10cnVl)

The recipe I use is: (measures are per person so multiple it by the number of people that will eat)
50g 00 flour
50g semolina flour
1 egg

Knead the dough with your hands until it is completely smooth and consistent
If the dough is too dry, add some water; if it is too sticky, add some flour
Remove the dough from the bowl and place it on a table, lightly dusted with flour.
Cut in small pieces and feed into the pasta machine
 
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@yrralis1 I see a lot of news about Florida, Texas and Arizona and the bashing of their Governors (all Republicans) for reopening their states too early. So the question is: I can see a spike in people being tested positive for Covid but are people dying?

What I understand is that the younger people are very ill . They may not die in the same proportions as the older cases but that's not necessarily a good thing . Living with permanent lung damage or other ailments could have all been avoided . They are in the beginning of their lives . A 6o year old who might live with severe illness has less time left to live with it than a 20 year old (hypothetically).

I know that you feel that you are in your own little bubble in Minnesota but it can happen there and its bound to happen everywhere until the petty nonsense of dismissing its severity is over . As it stands now its heading in the direction of no herd immunity and partial effective vaccine . In short the virus will be a marathon.
 

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For @yrralis1 and FL. The hotspots for infections have moved. A month ago it was Minneapolis and DC, now its FL, TX, and AZ. You might think I take this lightly because I defend the Constitution, everyone's rights guaranteed no matter who they are. But don't conflate caring that the Constitution is the Law of the Land and the rights of everyone with not also caring about the virus.
I dont see too many conservatives defending equal rights for gay people , or for a woman to chose her medical options , or for the rights of another religion (the list is long) . Haha !! The truth is that "rights" only seems to apply to "me, me. me," and the moment its something for someone else then throw it right back in the closet !

What I do see is idiots like that woman in the Palm Beach meeting saying that (paraphrasing) "God will throw a lightning bolt at the doctor because of wearing a face mask."
 

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The faster people in this country accept the fact that face masks & social distancing is the "New Normal" for a while, the faster we can re-open the economy.

Being stubborn to this fact serves no purpose, and will only delay States opening back up.
 
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I dont see too many conservatives defending equal rights for gay people , or for a woman to chose her medical options , or for the rights of another religion (the list is long) . Haha !! The truth is that "rights" only seems to apply to "me, me. me," and the moment its something for someone else then throw it right back in the closet !

What I do see is idiots like that woman in the Palm Beach meeting saying that (paraphrasing) "God will throw a lightning bolt at the doctor because of wearing a face mask."
Are you saying that you cannot have a liberal mindset and believe in the Bill of Rights? Last time I checked the first amendment was the very definition of liberalism. The very foundation of liberalism in the US is made into the Law of the Land in the First Amendment. What have I been defending for ALL? The first amendment.


Liberalism in the United States is a political philosophy centered on what liberals see as the unalienable rights of the individual. The fundamental liberal ideals of freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of religion for all belief systems and the separation of church and state, right to due process and equality under the law are widely accepted as a common foundation across the spectrum of liberal thought.

You need to take a close look at that video from TR's statue because you know this is likely to explode in the south in the summer and its going to be driven by college age, including grad school, maybe 18 - 24. Isn't FL known to have party schools? Summertime and the Living is Easy. 🌝🍺🍔🍟 Your governor has said the young will do young things. They have been locked up, can't be easily educated, its hot out, young hormones, and probably are fed up. Worse, they know the odds of dying from the virus are slim. When you say:
They may not die in the same proportions as the older cases but that's not necessarily a good thing .
What does that mean when your 21? Is that the POV of a 21 year old of someone much older, far more experience, far more understanding about life? What was on your mind at 21, the same things as today? What was on your mind at 18, 20, 24? The same things as today?

Did you ever notice that the older you get, the less you know?

For @//Bruce and FL, warnings in the press about the young from early June


The center is showing the number of people admitted to the ICU has been climbing for the past week. If it continues at the current rate, then TMC’s normal capacity of ICU beds could be exceeded in two weeks and so a warning was triggered.

What happened? We knew more testing means more positives. Today from CNBC, regarding TX


Health officials have been warning that a larger number of young people are becoming sick, possibly as a result of going to bars

Even though we have about 200 more patients in-house, about double, we only have about three or four more people in the ICU, so that’s encouraging.”

As of now, according to Boom, Houston Methodist has the necessary capacity to handle the Covid-19 outbreak, echoing similar comments Friday on CNBC from Dr. David Callender, CEO of Memorial Hermann Health System in Houston.


What did the other Houston Hospital say?


  • Dr. David Callender, CEO of Memorial Hermann Health System in Houston, told CNBC that its hospitals continue to have adequate capacity despite Texas’ growing coronavirus outbreak.
“We actually still think we have plenty of capacity to meet the demand for Covid, as well as non-Covid patients”

So much for the Houston Hospital Apocalypse. But there's more: Click through from an owner of 13 ER clinics in TX. The short summary: Positive rate of testing is 20% vs ~5% in May, Avg age? mid-30s. Vast majority better in 3 days like a mild cold Why do they go to the ER? Half were told by there bosses "go", the rest curious, gaming the system but need not be tested? Of those ending up in hospital, stay is 3 - 5 days. Cases are mild. The hospital is now full of Covid and routine hospital stays, not just Covid. ICU is full of "normal" ICU patients now, scared to come in before, now much sicker. Plenty of beds and ICU beds.

Why are infections up? Could it be they always had the virus and just weren't tested before and are doing what the young do?

Now to LA. Beaches ordered closed for the Holidays, just like Miami, Ft Lauderdale? Like all twitter threads you have to click through to read it all. Bicyclists don't seem happy, but here's the important bit for the discussion statement from Sherrif:

We were not consulted on the beach closure, and will only assist our beach cities in closing parking lots and traffic enforcement on PCH. In regards to enforcing the beach closure, we will not be enforcing it

The sheriff won't enforce what the Executive orders? Do you see this reported in the MSM? Will the beachgoers ignore the local orders, much like protesters ignored curfews, and do what they want especially since the Sheriff is hands off? Whats going to happen in FL? I don't know. What would you do at 18 or 20, hot summer nights?

Is it not ironic that the executive threatens fines but depends upon the police to enforce the order yet many want the police defunded? How they going to do that if 40,000 show up at a beach and they have no money to pay for the LEOs? Is NYPD going to have the Blue Flu on July 4?

 

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The faster people in this country accept the fact that face masks & social distancing is the "New Normal" for a while, the faster we can re-open the economy.
Thats probably true.

As it stands now its heading in the direction of no herd immunity and partial effective vaccine . In short the virus will be a marathon.
There is no 100% effective vaccine for anything. Even the WHO says this. The flu vaccines i like 40% effective? All you need is enough efficiency to get herd immunity. You get achieve herd immunity by getting a certain number sick AND/OR vaccines. The analogy to a firebreak works.


 

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Here's the short way of looking at FL, TX, and AZ. Besides the virus moving around the country, by now its mostly done with the elderly, the susceptible have survived or died. Cold but statistics seem to bear this out. Lethality is directly proportional to age and comorbities. Formites? Not so much a worry. Enclosed spaces? Big worry.

Now the mid-20s to 65 are going back to work. Bosses tell them to get tested. Meanwhile, the 18 - 24, its summertime and the hormones are flowing. Anyone here less than 25 and posting?

The young are going to do what the young do. The older folks might be mostly settled. Meanwhile the young are looking for their partners. Especially in a campus bubble, anyone remember what you thought about the old folks lecturing you? Don't smoke, Don't do Drugs. THIS IS your BRAIN! This is your brain on Drugs! Remember that? Don't drink and drive. Don't text and drive.

And yet they do. It doesn't matter the time frame. People are people.

Whether its Dr Fauci or anyone here thinking they young aren't frustrated, tired of being locked down, aren't ready to party. Aren't fed up with everything, whatever their cause today is, or their cause yesterday, or a future cause. There are always causes. They are going to do what people do.

Best not be at a beach bar around now? Look at it from THEIR POV, not from the older folks POV. Not saying its right or wrong, just reality. Human nature and all. Some responsible, some thinking about everyone, and some not so much thinking of everyone.
 

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Latest IHME predictions are out.

Oct 1 Death prediction is DOWN 4K.

There is ZERO divergence between openings. In other words, their estimates show NO effect of openings from now until Oct 1.

There is a 16K divergence between universal masking and not.

looking at FL, 5,000 of those desks are in FL on masking. Easing opening has ZERO effect

TX accounts for about 4,500 on the masking divergence
AZ about 1,100 on the masking divergence
CA accounts for about 1,500

That accounts for 12,100 of the 16K divergence on universal masking between those three states.

Since easing of mandates seems to have ZERO prediction of making any difference, I would expect an orderly proceeding to opening the country in the various phases. But universal masking predictions are that they do save lives and expect the emphasis to be placed in the appropriate states.
 

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Recall all of the woulda, coulda, shoulda restricted travel sooner from at-risk countries? Should this new threat lead to travel restrictions now?

New flu virus in pigs

I’m not endorsing it, but someday it’s possible we’ll hear people say “if only ....”. Where to draw the line without a crystal ball?
 

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Contact tracing scams. Who is going to allow it now? Had to know this was coming.

 

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Contact tracing scams. Who is going to allow it now? Had to know this was coming.

Ripe targets with FOMO to drive participation. We need your social security number . . .
 

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I will not talk about the current administration's accomplishment in pi$$ing off our real allies and now the EU has banned all Americans from coming in. Essentially isolating this country from the rest of the world. We are now alone to sleep in our soiled beds. I won't do that.

What I will talk about is the FACT that the virus is out of control in North America. It's too widely dispersed at this point. Testing and tracing is truly worthless at this point. We are alone. We either figure this out now, or the death rate will go up*.

*- For those saying the death rate is down from March, you ignore the FACT that when this virus "blossoms" overnight, hospitals will be swamped, people will be turned away, and people will die by the thousands.

This is just the tip of the iceberg.
 

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*- For those saying the death rate is down from March, you ignore the FACT that when this virus "blossoms" overnight, hospitals will be swamped, people will be turned away, and people will die by the thousands.

This is just the tip of the iceberg.
I'm not going to dismiss your fears or beliefs. We all have different thresholds. At least two TX hospitals or ER chains claim hospital capacity is not an issue. Routine cases are now being handled.

The IHME model exists for national stategy to ensure sufficient hospital resources so no one dies for lack of resources. Vents are no longer an issue. That ship sailed. Surge capacity is not an issue. Two 1,000 bed hospital ships went about unused. Field hospitals were set up and, basically went unused. So TX, ICU bed available, excluding "surge" capacity, is 2260. Predicted needed by Oct 1, 1260.

What's the problem here with TX? I don't understand where you're going here. I'm not dismissing it, but don't understand it. TX has double the predicted capacity without resorting to surge capacity.
 

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Latest IHME predictions are out.

Oct 1 Death prediction is DOWN 4K.

There is ZERO divergence between openings. In other words, their estimates show NO effect of openings from now until Oct 1.

There is a 16K divergence between universal masking and not.

looking at FL, 5,000 of those desks are in FL on masking. Easing opening has ZERO effect

TX accounts for about 4,500 on the masking divergence
AZ about 1,100 on the masking divergence
CA accounts for about 1,500

That accounts for 12,100 of the 16K divergence on universal masking between those three states.

Since easing of mandates seems to have ZERO prediction of making any difference, I would expect an orderly proceeding to opening the country in the various phases. But universal masking predictions are that they do save lives and expect the emphasis to be placed in the appropriate states.
This is a very complex thing, full of unknowns. Many of them can be understood by looking at the "big picture" data as you point out above. Here's a mystery for you. The U.S. infection curve has turned upward, but only because certain states (actually urban areas) have broken out. But look at the death curve too:
232412


You might say, wait, it takes a couple of weeks for the fatalities to catch up. But look at Sweden's curves:

232413


Nothing, not even a month later. I assume it depends on WHO was infected. Most countries did abysmal jobs protecting nursing homes in the early months. Apparently Sweden (and hopefully the U.S.) have fixed that by now. But look at New York:

232414

Infections are approaching zero, despite NYC being the most densely populated urban area in the nation. Is that just masking and distancing? Doubtful, as @grim reports above. I keep running across stuff supporting Dr. Levitt's hypothesis that the virus cannot sustain exponential growth beyond 20% of any particular population he's studied. The virus hits a wall and flames out at 20% everywhere on earth. Yesterday another article appeared to highlight that observation and again touches on why we may reach herd immunity far short of 70%, if half or more of us already have innate immunity at the T-cell level. Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?

Note that serology studies over a month ago showed about 20% of NYC residents were infected. Current hotspots were largely unaffected earlier but are flaring up now. Maybe letting the young and healthy run out and get infected while protecting the vulnerable is not an altogether bad thing? It may start to look pretty good if vaccine efforts fail or are relatively ineffective.
 
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I'm not going to dismiss your fears or beliefs. We all have different thresholds. At least two TX hospitals or ER chains claim hospital capacity is not an issue. Routine cases are now being handled.

The IHME model exists for national stategy to ensure sufficient hospital resources so no one dies for lack of resources. Vents are no longer an issue. That ship sailed. Surge capacity is not an issue. Two 1,000 bed hospital ships went about unused. Field hospitals were set up and, basically went unused. So TX, ICU bed available, excluding "surge" capacity, is 2260. Predicted needed by Oct 1, 1260.

What's the problem here with TX? I don't understand where you're going here. I'm not dismissing it, but don't understand it. TX has double the predicted capacity without resorting to surge capacity.
The reason for this "blossoming effect" (that's my term) is because a collection of people co-mingled at multiple places over the last few weekends, like Galveston and all the bars opening and EVERYONE getting loaded for the first time in months. THEN went home to their respective cities (Pearland, The Woodlands, Houston as in the ship channel area, the west side, the northeast side....) and went back to their lives infected symptomatic or asymptomatic and spread it all around.

This will happen in every city, county, state, parrish and back alley where it's "blossoming" as I type.

If you've read this far: Think of a forest fire out West. A lightning strike has hit a dry tree and started a forest fire. Now, a few more lightening strikes. But the winds are blowing live hot embers to neighboring clusters of trees. And they catch fire. And so it goes.

The embers are flying all over the US right now. And we are now being isolated from the rest of the world little by little.

Wear a F'g mask! Please....
 

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Latest IHME predictions are out.

Oct 1 Death prediction is DOWN 4K.

There is ZERO divergence between openings. In other words, their estimates show NO effect of openings from now until Oct 1.

There is a 16K divergence between universal masking and not.

looking at FL, 5,000 of those desks are in FL on masking. Easing opening has ZERO effect

TX accounts for about 4,500 on the masking divergence
AZ about 1,100 on the masking divergence
CA accounts for about 1,500

That accounts for 12,100 of the 16K divergence on universal masking between those three states.

Since easing of mandates seems to have ZERO prediction of making any difference, I would expect an orderly proceeding to opening the country in the various phases. But universal masking predictions are that they do save lives and expect the emphasis to be placed in the appropriate states.
First my point had nothing to do with the Bill of Rights but rather human behavior and attitude . If every time a person screams about his rights he expects it then there ought not be a exclusion when it comes to someone else rights when he disagrees .

Secondly I am not a liberal simply because I agree with some liberal social issues . I have voiced many times that I am not binary or married to any party ., If we were to discuss making money and compared Trump Vs Biden its like having a swim race with a kid who took a few lessons against Micheal Phelps . The problem is Trumo has become a fat , out of shape Micheal Phelps and he did so by allowing his ego to consume him . That's how he allowed this virus to get to where it is where he still hold rallies with mask free fools and doubles down on it. This is destroying the economy and what he is doing is part if it . The same is the case with the racial unrest . In contrast Biden wants to tap into capital gains , step up estate planing , and scare the crap out of big business at a time when everyone is sitting in quicksand . So its like Archie Bunker Vs Weekend at Bernies . You simply can't admit it . The future is bleak.

I don't care if the hospitals claim to have capacity . There are those who are not even ending up in a hospital but they are showing up to work sick in businesses that never should have been opened . Our Mayor is already pointing at a second lockdown , What a waste it became when all those sacrifices went to toast. .

The other night I watched this . Ask yourself ,, does this sound somewhat like someone else ?
Would you be surprised if a press conference sounded somewhat like this ?
 

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This is a very complex thing, full of unknowns. Many of them can be understood by looking at the "big picture" data as you point out above. Here's a mystery for you. The U.S. infection curve has turned upward, but only because certain states (actually urban areas) have broken out. But look at the death curve too:
No mystery. Average age of new infections is mid-30s. They live. More tests, more infections.
 
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