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Do EVs have a future in the US?

  • Another tech will replace EVs, open market, and not exceeding 10% of the market

    Votes: 3 10.0%
  • EVs will not exceed 10% open market penetration

    Votes: 3 10.0%
  • EVs will reach 50% open market penetration

    Votes: 11 36.7%
  • Fed Government will ban ICE, closed market, 100% penetration

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Fed Government will ban ICE, closed market, 100% penetration but with another technology

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • EVs will fade away in an open market like Beanie Babies, Hula Hoops and 3D TVs.

    Votes: 1 3.3%
  • I don't care

    Votes: 5 16.7%
  • EVs to reach 10%, open market penetration to be superseded by another technology

    Votes: 7 23.3%

  • Total voters
    30
1 - 20 of 20 Posts

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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
There is lively debate in this thread concerning Will EV be a short lived phenomenon ? There are pros, cons, and some people just don't care. Regardless of what you believe, everything is just opinions. Speaking about the US, what do you believe? Are EVs the future? What about Hydrogen? With cheap gas prices and cheap gas cars, will the gasoline industry continue to dominate for decades or will government ban ICE cars? Will the population allow the government to ban ICE? What about Energy Independence and future dependency on foreign nations? What do you think? This is for the US only. No one knows the future. There are no dates involved here. Might be in 2119. Who knows.

1. EVs with Lithium batteries will not be the future. Another technology will replace it in an open market not exceeding 10% market penetration.

2. EVs will not exceed 10% market penetration, meaning roughly no more than 1,700,000 EVs sold in the US per year

3. EVs will reach 50% market penetration, roughly 8,500,000 sold per year

4. The government will step in and mandate all new cars by a certain date be electric, a closed market. 100% penetration

5. The government will step in and mandate ICE banned but the technology will be something else, a closed market. 100% penetration

6. EVs will fade away along with Beanie Babies, Hula Hoops, and 3D TVs.

7. Don't care

8. EVs to reach 10%, open market penetration to be superseded by another technology
 

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The other thread got way too political.


In my opinion, they aren't going anywhere, but won't be replacing anything.
Just...there..same as the Ford Flex, ugliest thing in the world in my opinion but people do buy them as they keep selling them.
 

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I'm thinking of an alternative that you did not list.

How about EV's initially exceeding 10%, but then being replaced by a different technology?
This. I'm not sure EV's will ever reach 50% market penetration, but I do think that they will exceed 10% at some point, but will be replaced by another tech like Hydrogen, once more cost-effective measures of implementation are found.
 

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EVs will likely live somewhere between 10% and 50%. Pure EV at 50% is too high. However, HEV + EV will hit 50%. HEV is the quickest and simplest way to reap the benefits of electrification -- particularly with mild hybrid or 48V systems. A 48V battery, belt-driven starter/generator, and some control electronics can give a good 15% fuel economy savings for just a couple thousand $$. That's why it's showing up on pickup trucks and even on diesels.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/10/20161021-conti48v.html
 

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EV is the SONY BETAMAX.............loses in the free market

Long live the gas guzzling, loud, obnoxious ICE Engine
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Some input. IHS Markit predicts 7.4% penetration of EVs by 2026. https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/--ihs-markit-forecasts-ev-sales-us.html I do not know the historic success rate for IHS Markit predictions.

EVAdoption.com predicts 10.88% by 2026 17.65% by 2025 About EVAdoption https://evadoption.com/about/ “When will mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs ) occur?” is a key goal of this blog"

JP Morgan ~7% by 2025 https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/electric-vehicles for NA

futurefuelstrategies.com passenger cars ~2050 to hit 15%. Further analysis of predictions of others predictions are all over the place from 10% by 2030 to 50% by 2033 Its should not be surprising that the predictions are based widely upon which camp one aligns oneself with. Just data for information. Predictions are hard. They can't even predict where a hurricane is heading. I'd expect predictions of economic factors, geopolitical climates a decade ahead about impossible. If anyone could predict the future, all those who can would all be billionaires.
 

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Before voting in this US market poll I looked into Germany's current reality.
Because they are arguably one of the most subsidized and pushed (B)EV markets.
The current (B)EV market penetration in Germany is 0.19%.
Today the 2.33% (B)EV market penetration goal by 2020 was officially finally put out of its misery.
The new plan now is 23% (B)EV on the road by 2030...2030? (let's just add 10 years and move the % decimal...lol).
New massive incentives and tax brakes are being passed to maybe get to that.
To make that happen they also want 300,000 charging stations by 2030.
There are only 14,000 gas stations in Germany currently so I'm really confused as to who is doing that math...?

So that is the situation in a country that really really tries (not wants) to go (B)EV.
We here in the US? Peanuts subsidies compared to Germany? 23% by 2030? Fat chance! I'd be surprised if we are at 5% by then.
If I'm still around I get a Hydrogen Fuel Cell car in 2040 just for kicks.
Until then - I'm good - leave me alone - thanks. :x
 

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Before voting in this US market poll I looked into Germany's current reality.
Because they are arguably one of the most subsidized and pushed (B)EV markets.
The current (B)EV market penetration in Germany is 0.19%.
Today the 2.33% (B)EV market penetration goal by 2020 was officially finally put out of its misery.
The new plan now is 23% (B)EV on the road by 2030...2030? (let's just add 10 years and move the % decimal...lol).
New massive incentives and tax brakes are being passed to maybe get to that.
To make that happen they also want 300,000 charging stations by 2030.
There are only 14,000 gas stations in Germany currently so I'm really confused as to who is doing that math...?
I'm not ready for an EV yet myself, but I have nothing against them either. And I understand the need for EV vehicles in certain areas of the globe due to air pollution, but with Germany attempting to eliminate nuclear power in it's country completely, how are they going to generate all their increased electricity needs? Germany can't do it with solar, wind, and hydro alone.
 

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I'm not ready for an EV yet myself, but I have nothing against them either. And I understand the need for EV vehicles in certain areas of the globe due to air pollution, but with Germany attempting to eliminate nuclear power in it's country completely, how are they going to generate all their increased electricity needs? Germany can't do it with solar, wind, and hydro alone.

The Germans have gone off the deep end with respect to CLIMATE CHANGE.

They are shooting themselves in the foot, they will be in a bad way in less than a decade if they choose to continue down that path of stupidity.

But they have voters and they have choices, and either the voters will allow it or they won't, but the EU is a absolute mess, they all are off the deep end with their 10-12 years the world is doomed nonsense.

That leaves more oil and natural gas for us, I personally don't give a hoot what those in the EU do to their countries economic health and energy needs, let them all live in the dark with dead batteries and candles.
 

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I'm not ready for an EV yet myself, but I have nothing against them either. And I understand the need for EV vehicles in certain areas of the globe due to air pollution, but with Germany attempting to eliminate nuclear power in it's country completely, how are they going to generate all their increased electricity needs? Germany can't do it with solar, wind, and hydro alone.
You are not the only one wondering about that. The truth is there is no real plan for the increased electricity needs.
They are almost done with nuclear. The last plant will be switched off 2022. They also want out of coal by 2038 or something like that.
Let's see what happens. One thing I'm sure off: Electricity will become very expensive in Germany.
In an emergency they can always buy cheap nuclear power from France...;)
 

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Discussion Starter #14
For everyone who voted THANKS! :)

It’s been three days, about 48 hours and its doubtful more votes will come in. If they do, they will be a trickle. From the results, there is a clear winner option #3 at 36.67% 50% open market penetration followed by option #7 at 23.33%, EVs to 10% market penetration and replaced with another technology. No one thought the Federal government would ban ICE. My experience is that Internet polls attract one type of interest, those with a GREAT interest in the subject, either pro or con. Those who don't care about the subject don't bother. But, if you are vocal, either for or against a subject, then a voice is heard. Meanwhile the great silent majority just doesn't care.

In June, 2014 this forum had ~2200 members. In Aug, 2015 it tripled to = ~7300. By August, 2017 it doubled again to over 14,000 and today about 22,300. People come and go all the time. Some sign up and are never heard from. Some ask a question and disappear. Some buy a car, then leave. People read what’s of interest “to them”. Its impossible to read every thread. All these factors exist. There is also the Pareto Principle when applied to forums. I view it as basically 80% of the posts are made by 20% of the people. YMMV. Adjust as necessary. 30 people took the time to vote. As of this morning the thread had at least 325 views. That a 10% interest. 90% couldn't take the time to vote. But its far worse than that. The thread shows up on the Active and New screens. I guess that thousands of people at least saw the thread title over three calendar days and chose to not even read it, for whatever their reason. At the moment, ~660 people are reading the forum at this one instance of time. So lets add some perspective. The poll is anonymous. Nobody knows who voted for what.

A recent poll on road flares you keep in the car – 30 votes
Where do you go for scheduled maintenance? Triple the votes at 91
How many miles do you drive/year 214 votes More than double the triple the votes
What color will you order? 466 votes. Thats more than a MAGNITUDE more in votes.
How will you break in your car? 698 votes. 20 times the vote.

On 1/3/14 the question on color gathered 466 votes. On 2/9/14 there were 483 members. Think about that. People REALLY cared about color.
On 5/3/14 there were 698 votes on engine break-in. from a pool of about 2000 possible votes.

Today, 30 out of 22,300? Sure, I know people are long gone but 30? People answer these questions when they care about the subject. People do whatever they want to do. But the future for Porsche seems clear to me. they are going full electric. The Macans will be electric. Even the 911 will be, its just a matter of date, IMO. A press release from 7/31/19 https://presse.porsche.de/prod/presse_pag/PressResources.nsf/Content?ReadForm&languageversionid=1006638&view=1 Maybe it doesn't translate well from German to English but I have no idea what they are trying to say. Quote:

“As the advent of electromobility brings a silent drive system – where these used to be a dominant sound source – quality requirements are expanding in this area too. “

What does that mean? In any case, if you're a Porsche fan, this is their published future direction. Its in their annual reports. Its in their press releases.
 

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Ummmm... With respect, it would appear, and I could be totally wrong, that Germany does, in fact, have a plan. Use the Google. They're looking out to 2050 and are pretty agnostic as to advances in tech. Also, one may want to learn how much DE generates in renewables as a percentage of total energy, according to Reuters. Pretty impressive, about twice as much as Texas at a little below 20%. Those new-fangled blades on the turbines are increasing the effective area of wind capture. Think "Pie R Squared." Visit (or look at Google Earth) Amarillo and west...incredible, even from 35K feet on Delta last weekend.

If several sticky bottlenecks (the science ones...wink, wink), are addressed, mainly the cost of mass storage, there won't be as much a requirement to dig up and extract as much carbon to supply many energy needs and keep those "OPEN" signs blinking throughout the night.

The North Sea isn't predicted to get less windy anytime soon according to the predictions over there. Plus, DE does in fact import lots of gigs from French nukes. Plus, coal is imported. Gas from somewhere east?

So...again, with respect, from our armchairs in the US, I wouldn't short-sell the can-do attitude, forward thinking, science and technology and work ethic of the Germans. Who engineers the cars you're driving? Macan Forum is the best place on Earth to argue about the need for black tail pipes and the aesthetics of tail lights. All fun stuff! There may, repeat "MAY" be other sources that give us the "all-holy" convergence of data on the yucky science/tech/economic stuff. See your broker for more details?

Until then, though..."They (LoL) THEY" will have to take my (sanitized for my protection) gas pump handle from my cold. Dead. Oily. Hands....

Now, let's all step away from the screens and GO OUTSIDE and PLAY!
FP
BONUS graphic...Cool kids look at stuff like THIS: https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX
 

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Ummmm... With respect, it would appear, and I could be totally wrong, that Germany does, in fact, have a plan. Use the Google. They're looking out to 2050 and are pretty agnostic as to advances in tech. Also, one may want to learn how much DE generates in renewables as a percentage of total energy, according to Reuters. Pretty impressive, about twice as much as Texas at a little below 20%. Those new-fangled blades on the turbines are increasing the effective area of wind capture. Think "Pie R Squared." Visit (or look at Google Earth) Amarillo and west...incredible, even from 35K feet on Delta last weekend.

If several sticky bottlenecks (the science ones...wink, wink), are addressed, mainly the cost of mass storage, there won't be as much a requirement to dig up and extract as much carbon to supply many energy needs and keep those "OPEN" signs blinking throughout the night.

The North Sea isn't predicted to get less windy anytime soon according to the predictions over there. Plus, DE does in fact import lots of gigs from French nukes. Plus, coal is imported. Gas from somewhere east?

So...again, with respect, from our armchairs in the US, I wouldn't short-sell the can-do attitude, forward thinking, science and technology and work ethic of the Germans. Who engineers the cars you're driving? Macan Forum is the best place on Earth to argue about the need for black tail pipes and the aesthetics of tail lights. All fun stuff! There may, repeat "MAY" be other sources that give us the "all-holy" convergence of data on the yucky science/tech/economic stuff. See your broker for more details?

Until then, though..."They (LoL) THEY" will have to take my (sanitized for my protection) gas pump handle from my cold. Dead. Oily. Hands....

Now, let's all step away from the screens and GO OUTSIDE and PLAY!
FP
BONUS graphic...Cool kids look at stuff like THIS: https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX
In fact in 2018 renewables (water, wind, solar, bio-fuel) provided around 40% of the total German electricity consumption. 2019 they are at 46% to date. That is indeed impressive.
However that also means 54% currently still has to come from nuclear, coal and natural gas. And there is no plan how to generate the additional electricity for EV. There is hope but hope is not a plan:
They hope every household (for those lucky enough to own a single family home in Germany) will generate and store their own energy via solar and batteries.
They hope people will only charge their EVs at night.
They hope people will be ok with looking at wind turbines everywhere.
They hope people will find electricity too expensive and switch to public transportation.
Germany is dealing with an extremely radical green movement. Led by the "youth". Google "Friday's for future".
I don't blame them. If I truly believed the world ends in 12 years I'd protest too. :|
It's easy to be idealistic when you grew up in extremely peaceful and prosperous times.
Courtesy of your parents and grandparents hard work. Unfortunately they completely forget/ignore why Germany is so wealthy.
There might be economic problems coming when the only thing left being manufactured in Germany are potatoes...
It's an experiment...We'll see...
 

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Discussion Starter #17
Cool kids look at stuff like THIS: https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX
Nice, most people don't even know what data is available. :) Are we moving onto energy in Germany?

The EU has EXTENSIVE plans. its all out there on their websites and Germany abides by EU regulations. I too would not sell their determination short. Their attitude is NOT about 12 years and the end of the world. Its about WWIII. They know they die without energy independence.

They do have plans https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-strategy-and-energy-union/2050-long-term-strategy
They tell you where their energy comes from https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-security Norway, Russia, OPEC
They know they have to ensure the electricity supply. Same page.
And they know if the supply lines are cut, they die. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/2014_stresstests_com_en.pdf "risk of a disruption in gas supplies"

This is why I laugh at people thinking the US would ever give up its hard earned energy independence after a half century dependence on OPEC. The US has what the European Union seeks. Everything they hope for, the US has. But @trusted has a point to. ...

The best laid plans ... etc etc etc AKA S*** happens. And worse, some young think the world began when they were born.
 

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Are we moving onto energy in Germany?
Nah we can circle back to the US. Didn't mean to derail the intend of this thread. :)
Those new-fangled blades on the turbines are increasing the effective area of wind capture. Think "Pie R Squared." Visit (or look at Google Earth) Amarillo and west...incredible, even from 35K feet on Delta last weekend.
I drove by those wind turbines on my way from Amarillo to Albuquerque. They seemed to go on for hours and hours. :eek:
I wasn't sure what to think of it tbh. While interesting at first, it's definitely ruining the landscape visually imho.:|
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Courtesy of your parents and grandparents hard work. Unfortunately they completely forget/ignore why Germany is so wealthy.
There might be economic problems coming when the only thing left being manufactured in Germany are potatoes...
It's an experiment...We'll see...
How does Germany exist with negative interest rates? I don't get that.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-bonds-negative-yields-graphic/german-government-borrowing-rates-sub-zero-for-record-period-idUSKCN1UK158
 

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Would've voted #8 if the poll had still been open. My new computer keeps playing "New Phone, Who Dis" with my Macan Forum password. :/
 
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