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Another moron and more reasons to wear gloves while shopping.

‘’’what’s wrong with these people.

 

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Discussion Starter #324
I get to finally post something positive in this thread.
Another positive. Looks like the numbers the media is pushing from all those models above are getting pushback from Dr. Birx. You can watch what she said here
or you can read the transcript here

I can tell you, if you go back and look at Wuhan and Hubei and all of these provinces, when they talk about 60,000 people being infected, even if you said, "Oh, right. Well, there is asymptomatics and all of that" -- so you get to 600,000 people out of 80 million. That is nowhere close to the numbers that you see people putting out there. I think it has frightened the American people. I think on a freely -- on a model that you just run full out, you can get to those numbers if you have zero controls and you do nothing.
Don't look for it on the networks, most cut away before Dr. Birx spoke. :rolleyes: On a bright note for fashionistas, see the bright yellow scarf? I've been informed thats a Hermes scarf. Big 💵 Different one every day? A star on stage.

 

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Discussion Starter #325
This sounds like good news too. Maybe those models weren't all that right. UK


Maybe I don't understand how the UK does things but it sounds like their government thinks this virus is not a highly infectious with high death rates? Anybody understand this? As of 3/19 its not longer a HCID?
 

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I read this morning that of the 30,000 confirmed cases in New York state, over half are believed to be in NYC.

A friend in VT has reported ski season peak numbers (it has not been ski season for well over a month) of
"visitors" primarily from NY and CT who have fled to their vacation homes in his community, apparently as a part
of an exodus of the well-heeled from the major metropolitan areas.

One would "hope" these visitors are following the White House recommendation to self-quarantine for 2 weeks.
(yeah, right). Since all of the local restaurants are closed, they're shopping for food in the local grocery store.

The locals are naturally fearing for their own well being.
 

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Discussion Starter #327
Remember the professor from the Imperial College whose model seems like the basis of all the scares?

This is the twitter feed of the lead Author of that report. Read this. The software was written 13 years ago and is THOUSANDS of lines of code, undocumented. Its not open source, only a couple of days ago four partners are working to document it and build a front end to it. Then very sad :( at then end he is positive.

Then this came out from the UK. What happened to all the dire predictions?

And then Dr Birx pushes back against the US press and dire predictions.

Professor Ferguson to the UK parliament. Watch the video


OK, its too long for me to watch but here's the summary


🤔 Looks like the UK will be fine

This is a former NYT reporter. You have to click through to read the thread, A quick summary. UK has enough ICU beds. 20K dead, half from their underlying complications. The initial report said 500,000. And last, nothing in the US press about this.


Here's the study that predicted 2,000,000 dead in the US

510,000 dead in UK without mitigation, 250,000 dead in UK with mitigation
2,220,000 dead in US without mitigation, 1,100,000 dead in US with mitigation

Today, the modeling prediction is for 20,000 dead in UK and half from underlying causes. All deaths are sad. Bad virus, but modeling? No wonder Dr. Birx was pushing back. When will the US press tell the public about this? Sounds like good news to me if there could be any good news during this health crisis.
 

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The US is currently using mitigation, instead of suppression, in order to address the COVID19 issue.
The "flattening the curve" efforts are part of mitigation.

China used suppression to address the spread of COVID19. This involved the lockdown of cities and
regions of the country. While it lowers infection rates, it also leaves many people susceptible to the virus.
Scientists are watching China for any evidence of a resurgence of the virus as restrictions are lifted.

Until enough time has passed, and more evidence is in, we do not yet know which method will be the
most successful in battling this pandemic.


Regarding the preceding comments - are we now looking at completely tossing the modeling predictions?

Is this now a case of "a few weeks and it's all over"? I seriously doubt that!

It appears that people are still being infected and the fatalities continue to rise. In the US alone, the reported
numbers of cases for the last few days have gone from 19,931 -> 27,004 -> 46,548 -> 55,568 -> 76,514

Around 4X in 4 days (~20K -> ~80K)

Close to 3X in three days (~25K -> ~75K)

Roughly .5X in one day (~50K -> ~75K)


Birx claims the test positive rates are in the 10-11% range. What does that really mean? What percentage of the US
population is being tested? Where is it that people are being tested? Certainly that can have an effect on the test results.

Unfortunately, it's "business as usual" in the D.C area and people tell half-stories in order to support their agendas.


Think critically!

Focus on factual evidence!


Stay well!!!
 

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Discussion Starter #329
Regarding the preceding comments - are we now looking at completely tossing the modeling predictions?

Is this now a case of "a few weeks and it's all over"? I seriously doubt that!
I don't think your following the timeline. All the links are above. I'll go through it.
  • Professor from Imperial College predicts 250K dead in UK, 1.1M dead in the US WITH MITIGATION! Read the report. Link above.
  • Press pushes panic. Countries lock down etc etc etc
  • World finds that the model is 13 year old flu model to model the new virus, no documentation, not open source. Code kept tight.
  • Professor yesterday does remote video with UK Parliament. Predicts 20K deaths in UK, NOT 250K and half of them would have died from their complications anyway. Do the math. Read the article or watch the video, predicts now the peak is 2 - 3 weeks in UK. No problem with ventilators in UK.
  • Meanwhile, on two occasions now Dr. Birx pushed back on the US press concerning modeling. The recent one was yesterday. Video above NOT shown on CNN, MSNBC etc because they cut away. The other was a week ago where she said something like she loved modelers but ... something like take them with a grain of salt.
Anyone else can read the material and draw their own conclusions. Thats what I see. In the meantime, try to find the networks talking about this.
 

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Discussion Starter #330
SHE JUST SAID IT! Dr. BIRX JUST MENTIONED THE REPORT

250,000 with mitigation now down to 20,000 in the UK. She's talking about all the people walking around with little or no symptoms.

MODELS DO NOT MATCH REALITY

I knew it. Italy not close to matching predictions.

Data does NOT MATCH WHAT IS ON THE GROUND. They are looking closely at it.

There is no reality of data on the ground to match the models.
 

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SHE JUST SAID IT! Dr. BIRX JUST MENTIONED THE REPORT

250,000 with mitigation now down to 20,000 in the UK. She's talking about all the people walking around with little or no symptoms.

MODELS DO NOT MATCH REALITY

I knew it. Italy not close to matching predictions.

Data does NOT MATCH WHAT IS ON THE GROUND. They are looking closely at it.

There is no reality of data on the ground to match the models.
Dr Birx raises many valid points . However in one breath states that most are focusing on numbers but then goes on to list "cycles" with projected data . The truth is that the ONLY numbers which really matter (on a public health issue) are those ill, dead or actively spreading it .

In one of your recent posts you pointed at predictions of the past and the fact that most who died had "underlying health issues " . That is a VERY broad term . An underlying issue might be as simple as asthma or moderate high blood pressure . In fact smokers may have underlying issues and not even be aware . Recently even those younger people who were vaping e cigarettes came into the spotlight .

Now if you are suggesting that anyone with any underlying issue ought to self quarantine to avoid it while the rest of society gets back to work then how can one even establish a metric to determine what qualifies ? As for the idea of promoting going to church on Easter it suggests a full scale mass increase of spread . Just as those college students wanted to go to spring break don't you think some grandmother might want to spend Easter with her family ? It's also a full nation event in EVERY city and we already know its a group of people who will choose emotion and faith over reason . It's one thing to slowly start up a society and yet another to to open the faucet too high.
 

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Birx claims the test positive rates are in the 10-11% range. What does that really mean? What percentage of the US
population is being tested? Where is it that people are being tested? Certainly that can have an effect on the test results.
Agreed. I feel that we missed the boat with the full benefit of testing (unless critical) . The speed of confirmed cases implies that the spread exceeds the timeline to test/result/contact trace/etc . Last week Miami had less than 5 cases in one day and now we are up to 500 cases with 200 in the last 24 hours . Miami is not even an epicenter . I suggested testing in my first post on the thread (weeks ago) .

I feel at this point testing still has some benefit but mitigation now depends on supplies , staff , and space in facilities .

Just something else to note -- going to the hospital for some other NON Covid issue might turn out to be too dangerous . There are som many components to this very difficult time .

Stay safe .
 

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Discussion Starter #333
Dr Birx raises many valid points . However in one breath states that most are focusing on numbers but then goes on to list "cycles" with projected data . The truth is that the ONLY numbers which really matter (on a public health issue) are those ill, dead or actively spreading it .

In one of your recent posts you pointed at predictions of the past and the fact that most who died had "underlying health issues " . That is a VERY broad term . An underlying issue might be as simple as asthma or moderate high blood pressure . In fact smokers may have underlying issues and not even be aware . Recently even those younger people who were vaping e cigarettes came into the spotlight .

Now if you are suggesting that anyone with any underlying issue ought to self quarantine to avoid it while the rest of society gets back to work then how can one even establish a metric to determine what qualifies ? As for the idea of promoting going to church on Easter it suggests a full scale mass increase of spread . Just as those college students wanted to go to spring break don't you think some grandmother might want to spend Easter with her family ? It's also a full nation event in EVERY city and we already know its a group of people who will choose emotion and faith over reason . It's one thing to slowly start up a society and yet another to to open the faucet too high.
I'm not talking about any of what you mentioned. I said nothing about Easter, vaping, or underlying issues. I've been talking the last few days about computer modeling.

It appears the computer models upon which panic has been pushed, which all seems to have started from the college in England, the first predictions are now being revised, way way down - 250K to 20K in the UK. Just read his original paper and read the latest. Its all there. I'm not talking about what the President wants to do. I'm talking about we are all sitting around, locked up in the house, can't go out, etc. And its seems to be based on this paper's model.

Dr. Birx, and others before here, are saying the data does not match the model.

Have you ever written software? Have you ever written thousands of lines of any language. Were you sure it was correct? Its not Open source. I'm not discussing 2nd and 3rd cycles. I'm discussing the modeling, what the governments and press did with the models, and the reality. She said the number of Italy deaths on the ground do not match the models. What does that tell you about the models?
 

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I'm not talking about any of what you mentioned. I said nothing about Easter, vaping, or underlying issues. I've been talking the last few days about computer modeling.

It appears the computer models upon which panic has been pushed, which all seems to have started from the college in England, the first predictions are now being revised, way way down - 250K to 20K in the UK. Just read his original paper and read the latest. Its all there. I'm not talking about what the President wants to do. I'm talking about we are all sitting around, locked up in the house, can't go out, etc. And its all based on this paper's model.

Dr. Birx, and others before here, are saying the data does not match the model.

This is key. Have you ever written software? Have you ever written thousands of lines of any language. Were you sure it was correct? Its not Open source until the last few days they are working on making source. The public has no idea what bugs are in it. Its not crowdsourced. Ever buy some shrink wrapped software and it blows up?

I'm not discussing 2nd and 3rd cycles. I'm discussing the modeling, what the governments and press did with the models, and the reality. She said the number of Italy deaths on the ground do not match the models. What does that tell you about the models?
You did state "underlying issues " . As for Easter you did not state it but you must take into account that starting up society can take that direction . Lockdown places a lid on it .

So the question to you is how far would you be a ready to go ?
 

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Discussion Starter #335
You did state "underlying issues "
I didn't say that. Here is the article again:


Quote:

UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

Read more: UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6Hq6wUdAo

unlikely to exceed 20,000. Thats a magnitude less than the first prediction of 250,000 with mitigations.

And the second link:


He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
I'm only discussing the models.
 

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Discussion Starter #336
Let me try it this way.

Predictions of many deaths "based on computer models"
Code was 13 years old, thousands of lines, not open source - is it correct?
Governments shut down. Stocks crash
Prediction revised down by a magnitude
Other models show different numbers
US lead, Dr. Birx, pushes back on the models that their predictions don't match reality.

What does that tell you about the model? This is simple. The models don't match reality.

I'm not talking about anything else. Start at 11:00

 

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Discussion Starter #337
Last try

Locked in house
Big paper losses
Media hypes 1M to die
Afraid to touch anything outside, no lysol wipes
TP getting low 😨
Family nerves fraying, too many people in house day after day 👨‍👩‍👧‍👧
Worry about getting laid off
Invisible enemy
Kids upset
It feels like living in a bad B movie, wake up each day and can’t believe its real 🎥

Now model doesnt match reality :oops: per Dr Brix
See the problem?

People are scared, millions out of work, why? Is Dr Brix wrong?
When will people be no longer afraid?
 

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Discussion Starter #338
You did state "underlying issues " .
I found it. I didn't say underlying issue, Prof Ferguson said it:


Summarized: half to 2/3 who die were at end of life or underlying conditions

People are scared. They are afraid to walk into the grocery store. The elderly are afraid. Will they ever be able to go out. Life is spiraling out of control. If its true, and is sure sounds like Dr Brix, now pushed back THREE Times on models, was not happy about it, you don't think there is going to be some hard questioning about ALL modeling? Think about what other science depends upon models. Just a few examples

Mayor of LA will cut of utilities to companies not shutting down.
Prisoners are being released all over the country. You think that not scary, especially to the elderly?

Violate the orders, get fined

This one is my favorite. Rat out a business Wait a second, didn't I see that in a WWII movie?

"police have created a hotline to report non-essential businesses that are staying open"
And a philsophical tweet, you know this is coming


I am not happy about leaving the house. 😷
 

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Wow, at 5,000 new cases per day, I thought it would take 10 days for the US to surpass China’s case volume.

It took 4 days.

Mortality rate still hovering at 1.5%, but it will go up. I speculated 4%, but even 2% will be just around the corner.

So with no National edict to lockdown, and if some States are slower to implement isolation, how quickly will this thing spread? A state like FLA with a high population of elderly?

What I think is the worse option (let people get sick) might be what is realized? So let’s run those numbers: you need 60-75% of population to become infected and to build immunity for the virus to be contained. So a third of the US would be 200M. Mortality of 3% would be 6M dead. Mostly elderly and pre-conditioned. Maintain the economy but cull the herd?

This is not imaginable. Better to contain it until a treatment and / or vaccine is discovered. Pray that this thing is seasonal like flu. Even then, 200,000 infected, 3% mortality = 6,000 dead. We’re fckd.
 
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