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A bit more on modeling. It appear most of the modeling came from the Imperial College study. This must have frightened many people. Now, there is pushback. Unlike the climate change world, I see no "consensus" that any model is right? Anyone see a consensus? Another study from the UK


The actual paper is here Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf

I don't know understand it but its pushback. Seems like half the country already has it and didn't even know it. I got no idea if thats true.

And another model This model predicts the last day each state can act before the point of no return

And here is pushback saying those predictions don't match reality. You have to click it to read the thread then click show thread. The predictions are way off. Look at the NY numbers. They are way off.


Some smart people need to sort this out. Meanwhile, winter of 17/18, 80,000 died from the Flu in the US

Interesting article if you like numbers
 

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I don't know understand it but its pushback. Seems like half the country already has it and didn't even know it. I got no idea if thats true.
China never claimed they detected this with the first case. So it has been around longer before it was caught and identified . I also understand the logic that deaths are correlated to confirmed cases which made way to a hospital . Thus asymptomatic cases as well as those ill with mild symptoms who mistake it for another cause are omitted . They never make way to a hospital .Yet also omitted are those who desire to be tested and have obstacles to get it done. There are false negatives as well as false positives. In other words the data we have is not as accurate as it could be .

Yet one fact that can't be denied is the spike being so high that suddenly hospitals are short on supplies or ventilators. The amount of patients coming in is enough for ER physicians (worldwide) to sound an alarm and in high concentrated areas the numbers grow and so do the deaths .

To say that the number of deaths is low when correlated to those who get it ignores the fact that they are in fact high because everyone is getting it so easily , I see multiple references (by the media and politicians) to the flu data but that is a straw man argument . These are not identical or related illnesses .
 

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In my city grocery stores have shortened hours & Walmart just changed to closing 8:30 PM & Target 9 PM. (Both have large grocery sections)

The official explanation is that they need more time to stock shelves & sanitize. I'm skeptical/cynical re this 'explanation.'
Shorter hours means the same # customers must shop in much less time so harder to avoid crowds. Result is increased risk of transmission of the virus.
I think this is mainly an excuse to cut costs. less time open = less hours of wages to pay.

Many business are very negatively affected by this pandemic but I do not think grocery stores are among those. If anything, they have increased sales. They may need more employees, not less.

I like to shop for some groceries late, ~ ½ hr. b4 closing, when there are very few people in the store. Decrease my risk. Not a lot of people shopping at midnight. (I had already bought plenty of non-perishable groceries 1 month ago.)

Now there really is no time when very few customers are in the stores. Early AM, 1st hour is being reserved for seniors. I saw a sign @ Fry's: "6-7 AM seniors only, Line up here."
A friend told me she went to a grocery store 1st hour & it was very crowded with seniors.

Having people crowd together or "line up" is the exact opposite of social distancing!
 

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Having people crowd together or "line up" is the exact opposite of social distancing!
Its no doubt that grocery shopping is risk exposure . That risk stands to increase exponentially as more people become ill .Its part of why some are stockpiling .
 

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Discussion Starter #307
Theory on the seeding of Italy from China. Thinks France and Spain will be next. This is a perspective we in the US might not see.


Holy crap!!!

Look at Spain. Their numbers have exploded and the guy who predicted it tweets have been locked.
 

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Discussion Starter #308
Yet one fact that can't be denied is the spike being so high that suddenly hospitals are short on supplies or ventilators. The amount of patients coming in is enough for ER physicians (worldwide) to sound an alarm and in high concentrated areas the numbers grow and so do the deaths .
This article was written by a former Lt. Gov of the state. Sounds like New York sounded an alarm 5 years ago and did nothing about it.


Several years ago, after learning that the Empire State’s stockpile of medical equipment had 16,000 fewer ventilators than the 18,000 New Yorkers would need in a severe pandemic, state public-health leaders came to a fork in the road. They could have chosen to buy more ventilators
Instead this came out in 2015.


Much of it is read like rationalization for that choice but here is the important item

Q: Who makes the decision to allocate ventilator therapy to a patient?
A:
To ensure that patients receive the best care possible in a pandemic, the Guidelines providethat a patient’s attending physician does not determine whether his/her patient receives or continues with ventilator therapy; instead, a triage officer or triage committee makes the decision.
From the original article:

New York’s grim-reaper rules will be applied. New York City’s deputy commissioner for disease control, Demetre Daskalakis, is anticipating “some very serious, difficult decisions.
I would guess the states would need to do some serious learning from this.

The state knew of the shortage, had the money and should have bought the lifesaving equipment, instead of making a plan for who should live or die. A lesson for the future.
Sounds like a bad decision to me. I see them crying to the feds for help yet it appears they were warned. Of course the feds should help them but the 10th amendment assures the rights of the states not allocated to the federal government. Its up to states to take care of the citizens. Hence you see Governors locking down citizens, not the President. He can probably lock down interstate commerce and interstate travel. I guess everyone will be learning from this. Now maybe I'm reading those rules incorrectly but it sure sounds like NY decided to not buy the ventilators they were warned would be needed, made a decision against it but rather have triage and make life and death decisions based on "something", ROI? IMO they gambled and lost. But I have no real idea. A city of 19M, widely diverse, and now they are flooding to FL and FL says NO, go home. You made your bed, stay there.

 

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Discussion Starter #309
The other day I noticed some new movies on Amazon Prime. I clicked on one it said $20 to rent. 😂 Yeah, NO. Not spending $20 for some movie. This is all new. Now I know why


" the industry faces an apocalyptic reality: Nearly all movie theaters are dark across North America, ... Universal Studios announced last week that it would release Trolls World Toursimultaneously online and in theaters on April 10. costing a hefty $20 to rent for just 48 hour"
I hadn't though about this but why would anyone go to the movies again? Everything is cramped tight. Wasn't there a mass shooter shooting up a movie theater recently? I forget. Are they going to sterilize every seat between movies? I doubt that.

Doesn't most people have a TV and about all of them a "smart TV?" today. Why bother going out if for $20 you can rent new movie. Much more cozy at home. Cheaper food. Maybe this is the result of all this. Movie Theaters go the way of Drive Ins, gone from the American scene. Technology has allowed people to move on from the Big Screen?
 

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Discussion Starter #310
I don't think that any of the so-called "lockdowns" or "shelter in place" or stay-at-home orders mean that you cannot go driving around in your car to get out of the house. (And most of us will have to go to the store to get food, anyway.)
Thats even worse for these cars. Drive 5 miles once a week to a store, get your food, drive home again. The alternator will not have the time to put the energy back into the car for short drives and now you did it TWICE. And then, the oil never got hot for the first drive and never got hot for the second try so its twice as bad. This is called the "severe service schedule". When does the engine wear occur? Cold oil, starts. Look it up. The damage is accumulative. Look up what is considered severe driving and warrants a different preventive maintenance schedule. At least its not winter anymore so condensation won't build up in the sump.
 

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Thats even worse for these cars. Drive 5 miles once a week to a store, get your food, drive home again. The alternator will not have the time to put the energy back into the car for short drives and now you did it TWICE. And then, the oil never got hot for the first drive and never got hot for the second try so its twice as bad. This is called the "severe service schedule". When does the engine wear occur? Cold oil, starts. Look it up. The damage is accumulative. Look up what is considered severe driving and warrants a different preventive maintenance schedule. At least its not winter anymore so condensation won't build up in the sump.
I'm saying that I'm planning to do at least a couple of hour-long drives in my Macan each week on expressways, at speed, to get out of the house. No possible transmission or contraction of Covid-19 that way, and it's like walking your dog (except way more fun).
 

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I don't think that any of the so-called "lockdowns" or "shelter in place" or stay-at-home orders mean that you cannot go driving around in your car to get out of the house. (And most of us will have to go to the store to get food, anyway.) Cops will not stop you for just driving around (provided you are driving properly). Most people with Porsches will want to get out and drive every day or two -- the only exceptions being for those who are sick. So I doubt that many Macans will have battery problems.
Exactly. I was still going to work everyday up until this Tuesday when our Governor closed just about everything and said non-essential workers are to work from home. We're very thankful we still have jobs!

My Macan is my daily driver, like it is for most people with Macans, and even though I'm working from home, I still have to go out to get food & supplies....when I can find them, both for ourselves and my elderly parents (where I drop it off at their door). Same for my neighbors....
 

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I guess everyone will be learning from this.

Wishful thinking!

Back in 2017 I read this book (below) - then just published. Even then, government organizations
in the US were being warned of inevitable future pandemics. Did anyone listen? Was I the only
person to have read Dr. Quick's book?

Warnings have come and gone with SARS, MERS, and a few times, Ebola. We should consider
ourselves fortunate this is not Ebola spreading about. Its fatality rate is something like 40%.

We didn't have to be going through this.


230135



Think of the watered down financial reforms that actually made it into law after the 2008 meltdown.
Wall St. and others have been clamoring to do away with those ever since. The 2008 debacle
will occur again because of severely limited regulation. The rules and regulations put into place in
the 1930s served well for several decades. Once those were lifted - in the name of profits - the floodgates
to abuses led to the issues we've seen.
 

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Sounds like a bad decision to me. I see them crying to the feds for help yet it appears they were warned. Of course the feds should help them but the 10th amendment assures the rights of the states not allocated to the federal government. Its up to states to take care of the citizens. Hence you see Governors locking down citizens, not the President. He can probably lock down interstate commerce and interstate travel. I guess everyone will be learning from this. Now maybe I'm reading those rules incorrectly but it sure sounds like NY decided to not buy the ventilators they were warned would be needed, made a decision against it but rather have triage and make life and death decisions based on "something", ROI? IMO they gambled and lost. But I have no real idea. A city of 19M, widely diverse, and now they are flooding to FL and FL says NO, go home. You made your bed, stay there.

Ken Langone (Board chair of NYU Langone Medical Center and former Home Depot co starter) states it beautifully . He concedes that our healthcare system is not perfect so it sure is no surprise to me that New York sounded always years ago . But he points to the positives that he is seeing in his Medical center .. He is active in both the Medical as well as business end of this . He calling out all those who delay this stimulus as well.

I said earlier in this thread EVERYONE needs to stay in their region . Travel is more restrictive over transporting dogs and cats than sick humans and that's how we ended up here . I said earlier in the thread that on top of TSA safety screening health screening ought to be another layer added to travel . People sure know their rights but thumb their noses at responsibilities. So now we can all get sick together.

Florida has a huge population of snowbirds many of who have retired from the northeast Right now New Yorkers need to stay in New York (but so does EVERYONE else) . This is not just a New York event because any city can face this at any time .
 

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The other day I noticed some new movies on Amazon Prime. I clicked on one it said $20 to rent. 😂 Yeah, NO. Not spending $20 for some movie. This is all new. Now I know why




I hadn't though about this but why would anyone go to the movies again? Everything is cramped tight. Wasn't there a mass shooter shooting up a movie theater recently? I forget. Are they going to sterilize every seat between movies? I doubt that.

Doesn't most people have a TV and about all of them a "smart TV?" today. Why bother going out if for $20 you can rent new movie. Much more cozy at home. Cheaper food. Maybe this is the result of all this. Movie Theaters go the way of Drive Ins, gone from the American scene. Technology has allowed people to move on from the Big Screen?
Haven't you been following this? Drive-In movie theatres are very much back. It is tough to argue about having your own sterilized cocoon to enjoy entertainment from.
 

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Haven't you been following this? Drive-In movie theatres are very much back. It is tough to argue about having your own sterilized cocoon to enjoy entertainment from.
Yeah! It's like me sitting in my convertible in the garage and turn on the big screen TV to watch Ford vs Ferrari :D !
 

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Karma?

I was just going to post that. One report I read stated he was laying in his hospital bed crying.


Karma is a strange thing,” Good Morning Britain’s Piers Morgan said in response to a video showing a man who licked a toilet seat crying in a hospital bed. “If you behave in such a reckless, moronic, selfless manner, karma will catch up with you.”
 
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