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Tip 4, Stock up on Mountain Dew?

I think there will be far worse as unemployment surges . Since this event began at the height of a strong economy there are a lot of people with decent credit holding credit cards with sizable limits . If the pandemic speed worsens they will have lost everything but can still pay for it with plastic . I speculate they will ring up a huge tab , pay the minimum each month and when the limit is hit .. adios to payment . Just as their job was meaningless and their health is on the line their credit score will mean nothing .
 

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This is getting old. It has to end or the country will collapse.
There are those who are dismissing the severity of this . They think its some giant hoax . I understand that its an election year but when one sees a place like Madrid using an ice skating rink as a morgue or as Italy continues to struggle why can't they see that places who have no part in our election have this problem too ?

I realize it sounds like a nice bedtime story to say "its over and everything is going to be great" but that's not reality .. YET. I also realize that people are antsy . They don't like being cooped up .

Impatience might be a more costly than to just buy the time for the health professionals and scientists to get things done accurately.
 

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I had posted:

I think another effect of the pandemic will be many car battery failures due to driving much less. Especially for modern cars with AGM, S/S & computerized everything. I doubt many drivers own battery tenders.

If you are driving your Macan a lot less, use a tender!
You replied:
Really? In light of what's happening these days, this is a major concern of yours?

People still need to drive to get food & TP....and get tested for COVID-19 in the local drive-thru....;)
Are you spending 100% of your time concerned with only MAJOR concerns?

Why are you on an automobile forum? Is anything to do with you car ....major?
 

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Discussion Starter #284
There are those who are dismissing the severity of this . They think its some giant hoax . I understand that its an election year but when one sees a place like Madrid using an ice skating rink as a morgue or as Italy continues to struggle why can't they see that places who have no part in our election have this problem too ?

I realize it sounds like a nice bedtime story to say "its over and everything is going to be great" but that's not reality .. YET. I also realize that people are antsy . They don't like being cooped up .

Impatience might be a more costly than to just buy the time for the health professionals and scientists to get things done accurately.
It should not be dismissed. NYC just shot out of sight. Look at the numbers for NY, and I'm guessing most are in NYC, they are now at about 6% of the world total. 6%! See below.

2/2 - The ban on flights from China to the US began 2/2.
2/9 - 3/21
 

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There are those who are dismissing the severity of this . They think its some giant hoax . I understand that its an election year but when one sees a place like Madrid using an ice skating rink as a morgue or as Italy continues to struggle why can't they see that places who have no part in our election have this problem too ?

I realize it sounds like a nice bedtime story to say "its over and everything is going to be great" but that's not reality .. YET. I also realize that people are antsy . They don't like being cooped up .

Impatience might be a more costly than to just buy the time for the health professionals and scientists to get things done accurately.
I am Italian and I cry almost everyday for what is happening there. However, there is a reason why so many people die in Europe. Those countries have a very old population. Italy is well known for the Blue Zones where people live "forever". This virus kills mostly old people and people with some sort or existing condition. My family lives in Brazil. Two weeks ago there was a well known celebrity wedding with a huge party and lots of young people. One guest was infected and after couple days more than 150 guests were infected including the bride. It has been 14 days + since the event and there were ZERO fatalities. Some people felt they were hit by a truck like a bad flu and some people had no symptoms at all although they had testes positive for the virus. Thus, it is clear that old people and people with existing conditions are in trouble but the rest should be fine. In my view there should be education for people at the risk group to stay home and take precautions but the country should continue to function otherwise the consequences will be much worst than people getting sick. BTW, wash your hands all the time, do not sneeze on others, cover your cough, ..... those are things I learned from my mother when I was two years old. There is nothing new on this.
 

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Discussion Starter #286
China tops the charts with 81,100 cases. But if the US new cases grow at a rate of 5,000 per day (it grew by 9,000 yesterday), then the US will top China in 10 days. Within just 2 weeks the US could have more cases than any other country in the world.
Good thoughts @ikonn. The world meter site is great, those people are doing a tremendous amount of work. Its accumulates data from elsewhere and publishes it. That means its also dependent upon the sources. The china numbers come from their government, the same government that now says the US caused the Virus.


Lets go to the charts. Looks like everything peaked between 2/12 - 2/18 The total cases went about flat by 3/1. If you believe the numbers, how does a country of 1.4B, cities with population densities up to 3854/sq km do that?
 

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Discussion Starter #287
There are likely three outcomes for this virus:
1. the global lockdown reduces the infection rate so dramatically so that the virus dies down (it may become seasonal or there might be a second wave, but let’s not go there for now)
Another good point. Some information. AFAIK, the scary data came from this report


I got to assume the experts are experts. I'm not any kind of medical person so I have to trust what others write, like this


That R0 number seems important. So does "mitigation efforts".

This is the twitter feed of the lead Author of that report. Read this. The software was written 13 years ago and is THOUSANDS of lines of code, undocumented. Its not open source, only a couple of days ago four partners are working to document it and build a front end to it. Then very sad :( at then end he is positive. I hope everyone wishes him quick recovery. You got to click on the twitter feed then Show This Thread. You should also read the comments.


They have done great work and everyone should appreciate it. Now the information is coming out on where the code came from. Meanwhile, here is another model from Switzerland that already has a web interface. Plug in your own numbers and see what happens. You can't trust the default inputs here they are off. The original paper has some assumptions in it you could use. You have to know the number of actual beds, number of ICU units, etc in the US. Just look them up. I have no idea which model is best but I can imagine other models pop up soon.

COVID-19 Scenarios
 

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I had posted:

I think another effect of the pandemic will be many car battery failures due to driving much less. Especially for modern cars with AGM, S/S & computerized everything. I doubt many drivers own battery tenders.

If you are driving your Macan a lot less, use a tender!
You replied:

Are you spending 100% of your time concerned with only MAJOR concerns?

Why are you on an automobile forum? Is anything to do with you car ....major?
Last time I checked, this was "The Lounge"....:rolleyes:

"Our off-topic section. If you have something to talk about that's not related to the Porsche Macan, this is the area to do it."

Right now, yes. My major concern at the moment is not contracting COVID-19, not the f'ing battery in my not even 2 yr old Macan.
 

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There are those who are dismissing the severity of this . They think its some giant hoax . I understand that its an election year but when one sees a place like Madrid using an ice skating rink as a morgue or as Italy continues to struggle why can't they see that places who have no part in our election have this problem too ?

I realize it sounds like a nice bedtime story to say "its over and everything is going to be great" but that's not reality .. YET. I also realize that people are antsy . They don't like being cooped up .

Impatience might be a more costly than to just buy the time for the health professionals and scientists to get things done accurately.
I am Italian and I cry almost everyday for what is happening there. However, there is a reason why so many people die in Europe. Those countries have a very old population. Italy is well known for the Blue Zones where people live "forever". This virus kills mostly old people and people with some sort or existing condition. My family lives in Brazil. Two weeks ago there was a well known celebrity wedding with a huge party and lots of young people. One guest was infected and after couple days more than 150 guests were infected including the bride. It has been 14 days + since the event and there were ZERO fatalities. Some people felt they were hit by a truck like a bad flu and some people had no symptoms at all although they had testes positive for the virus. Thus, it is clear that old people and people with existing conditions are in trouble but the rest should be fine. In my view there should be education for people at the risk group to stay home and take precautions but the country should continue to function otherwise the consequences will be much worst than people getting sick. BTW, wash your hands all the time, do not sneeze on others, cover your cough, ..... those are things I learned from my mother when I was two years old. There is nothing new on this.
I am aware of Italy's population data . The combination of older and more cigarette smokers plays into the hands of an upper respiratory virus. Add to the mix that culturally family gatherings and social interaction is common adds another bite to the virus. There also is another thing .. Italy is a one payer healthcare system . It's clearly not working to their advantage . It's tragic .

I went to Milan as a child . I remember a famous church with a park in front of it with the birds that ate from my hands as a kid . I also went to High School in Bay Ridge Brooklyn and loved going to Italian family gatherings . So many children have lost parents and grandparents in Italy. This whole thing is just so sad,
 

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It should not be dismissed. NYC just shot out of sight. Look at the numbers for NY, and I'm guessing most are in NYC, they are now at about 6% of the world total. 6%! See below.

2/2 - The ban on flights from China to the US began 2/2.
2/9 - 3/21
I see the two contradictory quotes from the health commissioner . I think one of the biggest problems is infectious disease specialists are not making the policies . So what happens is that politicians are faced with interpreting it to put something in place. Even worse is that to address the virus is counter productive to what most feel is a normal way of life . The numbers are going up in places like Italy even with a lockdown . I think the hope is merely to flatten the curve . I said it in my first post on this thread .... it boils down to TIME for the scientists to get things done . Scientific method is not rushed event but even they understand the urgency . We live in an immediate gratification culture and this time around it will come down too those who are patient ,.
 

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Discussion Starter #291
Last time I checked, this was "The Lounge"....:rolleyes:

"Our off-topic section. If you have something to talk about that's not related to the Porsche Macan, this is the area to do it."

Right now, yes. My major concern at the moment is not contracting COVID-19, not the f'ing battery in my not even 2 yr old Macan.
And it should be the number one thing above all else. Everyone should worry about it. The thread started as the effect of the CoronaVirus on the automotive industry. The discussion was on Car Shows, races, car production, factories and morphed as the epidemic spread to pandemic and effects all life.

@iconoclast has a point. Many people use SUVs as, well as SUVs and daily drive them. Unlike sports car owners where the cars are toys, hidden in the winter, and come out in the warm months, those owners are used to using a battery tender. My guess is those who DD their Porsches and suddenly the car sits for a month do not use a tender. His advice is sage advice. Although not the #1 thing to worry about, one day this will be over.

Anecdotally, most of the cars in my neighborhood have not moved, most but not all. One person has out of state guest. I have no idea if that was planned and the person stuck here because of the various state lockdown orders. The car is parked in the street. It hasn't moved since this began, just sitting there for weeks. Yesterday, someone went out and started it. That's probably the worst thing to do. It took energy out of the battery and put none back in. IOW, the battery was drained more than before. Electronics fired up, computers woke up, and now it has to settle back to sleeping.

Its wise advice to pay attention to these details, particularly for Porsches which just suck the life out of batteries. And they cost far more to replace than going down to your local Sears and buying a DieHard for $100 and doing it yourself. For Porsche owners, I consider in the same category as having enough TP in the house. Sooner or later you're going to have to use that car to buy some more TP or one day the lockdowns will be over. I hope all the DD cars that have sat for 4 - 6 week, not driven and not on tenders, start. I know many will not. Watch the flood of AAA calls for a boost.
 

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I am aware of Italy's population data . The combination of older and more cigarette smokers plays into the hands of an upper respiratory virus. Add to the mix that culturally family gatherings and social interaction is common adds another bite to the virus. There also is another thing .. Italy is a one payer healthcare system . It's clearly not working to their advantage . It's tragic .

I went to Milan as a child . I remember a famous church with a park in front of it with the birds that ate from my hands as a kid . I also went to High School in Bay Ridge Brooklyn and loved going to Italian family gatherings . So many children have lost parents and grandparents in Italy. This whole thing is just so sad,
So sad for Italy. There is a very interesting and sad article on WSJ today that summarizes the problems there. If you subscribe you can read it here: Family Is Italy’s Great Strength. Coronavirus Made It Deadly.

Few things that makes coronavirus Italy so deadly:
1) Very old population. Italians live many years;
2) Italians hug and kiss each other. Very common among family members and even people you don't know;
3) Almost 25% of Italians between 30-49 years old still live with parents and grandparents (less than 5% in other European countries and in the US). It is cultural where the younger generation takes care of the older one. Now imagine, kids and young people coming home infected and hugging and kissing the old ones;

As a note, the WSJ article says that 90% of the deaths comes from people 60+ year old. Zero casualties on people below 30 years old.

The church you described is called Duomo which is the catedral of the city and a fantastic place.
 

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Discussion Starter #294
Another good point. Some information. AFAIK, the scary data came from this report


I got to assume the experts are experts. I'm not any kind of medical person so I have to trust what others write, like this


That R0 number seems important. So does "mitigation efforts".

This is the twitter feed of the lead Author of that report. Read this. The software was written 13 years ago and is THOUSANDS of lines of code, undocumented. Its not open source, only a couple of days ago four partners are working to document it and build a front end to it. Then very sad :( at then end he is positive. I hope everyone wishes him quick recovery. You got to click on the twitter feed then Show This Thread. You should also read the comments.


They have done great work and everyone should appreciate it. Now the information is coming out on where the code came from. Meanwhile, here is another model from Switzerland that already has a web interface. Plug in your own numbers and see what happens. You can't trust the default inputs here they are off. The original paper has some assumptions in it you could use. You have to know the number of actual beds, number of ICU units, etc in the US. Just look them up. I have no idea which model is best but I can imagine other models pop up soon.

COVID-19 Scenarios
A bit more on modeling. It appear most of the modeling came from the Imperial College study. This must have frightened many people. Now, there is pushback. Unlike the climate change world, I see no "consensus" that any model is right? Anyone see a consensus? Another study from the UK


The actual paper is here Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf

I don't know understand it but its pushback. Seems like half the country already has it and didn't even know it. I got no idea if thats true.

And another model This model predicts the last day each state can act before the point of no return

And here is pushback saying those predictions don't match reality. You have to click it to read the thread then click show thread. The predictions are way off. Look at the NY numbers. They are way off.


Some smart people need to sort this out. Meanwhile, winter of 17/18, 80,000 died from the Flu in the US

 

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Modeling is essentially "best guess" based on a number of assumptions. The key
word is the assumptions made as a basis for the model. If they're correct and complete
then the model will be more "accurate". If not, then the model is off in the weeds.

Those supporting a given set of assumptions will naturally follow with their devotion to a given model.

Who is to say which assumptions are correct? What if some are missing?

Modeling is not perfect - far from it. It provides a possible/potential look ahead. No guarantees, nothing
carved in stone.


Like the statement repeatedly made in other threads, predicting the future is very difficult, if not impossible.
 

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Discussion Starter #296
Modeling is essentially "best guess" based on a number of assumptions. The key
word is the assumptions made as a basis for the model. If they're correct and complete
then the model will be more "accurate". If not, then the model is off in the weeds.

Those supporting a given set of assumptions will naturally follow with their devotion to a given model.

Who is to say which assumptions are correct? What if some are missing?

Modeling is not perfect - far from it. It provides a possible/potential look ahead. No guarantees, nothing
carved in stone.


Like the statement repeatedly made in other threads, predicting the future is very difficult, if not impossible.
This is beyond that the input parameters have to correct. These are different models, different algorithms. Which model is right? Looks like the last model is way off.

Then someone has to write the code. The code has to be bug free. The Imperial College code is not open source and has no web interface.

The US is ranked 39 in cases/pop and 26 in death/pop, a new column on the website
 

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I don't think that any of the so-called "lockdowns" or "shelter in place" or stay-at-home orders mean that you cannot go driving around in your car to get out of the house. (And most of us will have to go to the store to get food, anyway.) Cops will not stop you for just driving around (provided you are driving properly). Most people with Porsches will want to get out and drive every day or two -- the only exceptions being for those who are sick. So I doubt that many Macans will have battery problems.
 
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