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Geneva 2020 Auto Show Cancelled


 

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The epidemic/pandemic will affect all global businesses, not just the auto industry.
 

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It is definitely affecting the Aquarium industry that I work in. Suppliers not up to 100% production. other factories waited to get inspected prior to opening. Tradeshows are being effected as well, encouraging manufacture reps from China to stay home as the fear of talking to Asian contacts in person is scary due to media hype. Great times it is
 

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I live in Geneva, and I have been following this with much interest since the GIMS is an event I look forward for during the whole year. In my opinion the show had to be cancelled but the organizers were waiting on the federal or cantonal authorities to order its cancellation rather than calling it off by themselves in order not to lose insurance coverage, since the losses will be enormous.

Just to give you an idea of how things have been in Geneva this week, on Monday I went to a DIY store to buy paint. I couldn’t help but notice that all painting masks had disappeared. Out of curiosity I passed by the protective equipment row, and also there all masks were out of stock. Masks against dust, solvants, etc. that won’t protect against virus contagion, all gone. That same day my wife was to two supermarkets, and in both of them she saw people stocking up on water, canned food, pasta, rice, etc., all the typical stuff you want to have at home to survive for a few weeks in isolation. Pharmacies also run out of stock of surgical masks and sanitising gel —an article that’s also out of stock at drug stores and supermarkets. Yes, people are that scared and in the last three days the coronavirus has been the only subject of conversation among colleagues at work, and it has kept us top managers very busy not only because of the effects of the virus on the economy (activity in China has practically ground to a halt for a month due to disruptions in the whole supply chain and customers in an increasing number of countries do not want salesmen or technicians to show up nor do they want the capital goods they bought to get installed just to avoid contact with other people), but also to try to come up with smart ways to keep our employees and their families safe across the globe.

What I don’t understand is why it has taken the stock markets this long to react, when it was crystal clear where all this was heading to. I sold all my positions a couple of weeks ago, thank God.

I think that as soon as this outbreak fades away we will be left with a buyers’ market in most industries, including the automotive one.
 

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Effect on Formula E
 

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What I don’t understand is why it has taken the stock markets this long to react, when it was crystal clear where all this was heading to. I sold all my positions a couple of weeks ago, thank God.
What you are seeing is institutional algorithmic high frequency trading . The close on Friday had a 500 point rally in 5 minutes or so. Most retail investors are long and even traders are holding long term long positions . At first the market did react but rallied back on the notion that Moderna had made progress and containment was possible . That was a month ago. When it hit Italy that';s when the sky fell . China and Europe are major players in the world economy and when names like Milan pop up many people think of their own vacations and realized its bigger than expected . Oil , financials , travel , even personalized business will slow . Some felt the market was overbought . Whether its oversold is in the cards for the present . The snag is that news on the virus can change in a flash .

My own personal logic is to hang on and to have been positioned in a way too ride out the storm . Those who are leveraged are in the worst shape . There's a fine line between investing and gambling and this type of market condition will teach it to those new to the game.
 

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During the financial crisis dealerships were empty . Porsche had so many cars on a boat that they offered dealerships 10K of trunk money just to take one . Many didn't want it . They had inventory and could not sell them . I walked into an empty dealership and got 20 percent off on a new 911 lot car . I told them I had read it online and that even though I dont need a car if 20 percent is doable I'll buy one off the lot today . They jumped !

This is different . No one wants to buy a car if he can't drive it anywhere . Plus his investments have been hit . I still feel this is temporary . No one can pick the bottom and no one knows when or how this will change over time .

When in doubt .. just sit tight .
 

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So we just wait for 20% off? :)
 

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So we just wait for 20% off? :)
If it gets to the point where its 20 percent off you may find that you don't want to spend even that much . This is not like the drop in 08 . The extreme side of this has a short term existence confined to ones home (or other quarantine scenario) . Plus this isn't like a head cold type of thing . A person can go from feeling ok to a ventilator . Plus even if its not you it may become someone you know or care about . In other words driving might not be a near term priority and with that car sales go down.
 

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I live in Geneva, and I have been following this with much interest since the GIMS is an event I look forward for during the whole year. In my opinion the show had to be cancelled but the organizers were waiting on the federal or cantonal authorities to order its cancellation rather than calling it off by themselves in order not to lose insurance coverage, since the losses will be enormous.

Just to give you an idea of how things have been in Geneva this week, on Monday I went to a DIY store to buy paint. I couldn’t help but notice that all painting masks had disappeared. Out of curiosity I passed by the protective equipment row, and also there all masks were out of stock. Masks against dust, solvants, etc. that won’t protect against virus contagion, all gone. That same day my wife was to two supermarkets, and in both of them she saw people stocking up on water, canned food, pasta, rice, etc., all the typical stuff you want to have at home to survive for a few weeks in isolation. Pharmacies also run out of stock of surgical masks and sanitising gel —an article that’s also out of stock at drug stores and supermarkets. Yes, people are that scared and in the last three days the coronavirus has been the only subject of conversation among colleagues at work, and it has kept us top managers very busy not only because of the effects of the virus on the economy (activity in China has practically ground to a halt for a month due to disruptions in the whole supply chain and customers in an increasing number of countries do not want salesmen or technicians to show up nor do they want the capital goods they bought to get installed just to avoid contact with other people), but also to try to come up with smart ways to keep our employees and their families safe across the globe.

What I don’t understand is why it has taken the stock markets this long to react, when it was crystal clear where all this was heading to. I sold all my positions a couple of weeks ago, thank God.

I think that as soon as this outbreak fades away we will be left with a buyers’ market in most industries, including the automotive one.
You see something similar here in the US. The level of ignorance of a big part of the world's population leads to panic. Masks will not protect you against the virus. They should be only used by people that are infected but they are all gone. Hand sanitizer is all gone when all you need is to wash your hands. Corona beer sales are down more than 40% because on a survey 40% of the US population said they won't drink Corona beer because they are afraid of the corona virus. Yes, that is very sad but true. I heard from people that have stocked on canned food and bottled water for a full year. Social media makes it even worse where ignorance can move way faster.
 

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You see something similar here in the US. The level of ignorance of a big part of the world's population leads to panic. Masks will not protect you against the virus. They should be only used by people that are infected but they are all gone. Hand sanitizer is all gone when all you need is to wash your hands. Corona beer sales are down more than 40% because on a survey 40% of the US population said they won't drink Corona beer because they are afraid of the corona virus. Yes, that is very sad but true. I heard from people that have stocked on canned food and bottled water for a full year. Social media makes it even worse where ignorance can move way faster.
The CDC could have been more tactful in their wording . When one sees people say "don't panic" and they look like they are panicking it does help the zombies on facebook or instagram fidget less with their iPhones . The point is that there are people who are sick . It can happen and to the person going through it it becomes everything .

So does ignorance lead to buying less cars (thread topic) , less travel , or more caution ? I dont think so. The truly ignorant will ignore everything and think it won't happen . Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

Its not a comfort zone topic but it is a topic that everyone is facing together and how we cope as a society will come with some growing pains .
 

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Corona beer sales are down more than 40% because on a survey 40% of the US population said they won't drink Corona beer because they are afraid of the corona virus. Yes, that is very sad but true.
Never overrestimate the educational level of the public. You left out the part about the MSM seemingly intentionally panicking the public. There is no need to discuss this 24/7. We all know more people die from the regular flu each year but thats never discussed. I place a lot of blame on the "journalists" intentionally doing anything they can because of their biases.

I watched the press briefing where the CDC guys and the best virus doctors where discussing it and the press was hostile to them even when the doctors pushed back at the reporters. Their agenda is not always in the best interest of the public.

Corona beer :LOL:

Surgeon General of the USA

 

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Never overrestimate the educational level of the public. You left out the part about the MSM seemingly intentionally panicking the public. There is no need to discuss this 24/7. We all know more people die from the regular flu each year but thats never discussed. I place a lot of blame on the "journalists" intentionally doing anything they can because of their biases.

I watched the press briefing where the CDC guys and the best virus doctors where discussing it and the press was hostile to them even when the doctors pushed back at the reporters. Their agenda is not always in the best interest of the public.

Corona beer :LOL:

Surgeon General of the USA

 

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Effect on the Car Industry

Jaguar/Land Rover is short on parts.
They are flying small parts in suitcases as luggage.

The cars are being shipped with just one key fob due to the shortage.
 

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Corona beer sales are down more than 40% because on a survey 40% of the US population said they won't drink Corona beer because they are afraid of the corona virus.

Alternate "facts"?

I hardly believe that "40% of the US population" was polled!

Perhaps what you meant to state was that 40% of those polled held that belief - which is virtually meaningless.
I could go out and ask 10 people (at a microbrewery, no less) how they felt about drinking Corona beer and if 4
of them said they were afraid, I'd have my 40% number.

Those kinds of statements feed into the hysteria. How helpful is hysteria?

Yes, America is full of "intelligence-challenged" people! That's a given.

Read the following for factual (not alternate) information:



CNN is part of the problem.


Now, could we get back on track as to how the automotive industry (and not the beverage industry!) is affected by the pandemic?
 
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